Thousands of kilometers away from the attacks in the Middle East, at his company’s headquarters in Toronto (Canada), Amar Zaidi was faced with what is normally a simple logistical task. He needed to send fabric from a factory in Istanbul (Türkiye) to a customer in Shanghai (China).
But the usual route involved passing through Oman via the Suez Canal — a route that suddenly became dangerous. The price to book a container ship was skyrocketing.
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Zaidi’s company, Rebus International, produces yarns and textiles, supplying raw materials to global apparel brands including Calvin Klein and Hugo Boss. Before the war in the Persian Gulf, shipping a container from Türkiye to China cost about $2,000, he said. When he tried to book the trip last week, the carriers demanded surcharges that raised the price to $10,000.
“It’s chaos,” said Zaidi, 52, who has worked in the sector for three decades. “It’s the domino effect. Everything is attributed to the war.”
Fabric probably isn’t the first item that comes to mind on the list of cargo affected by conflict. The extreme volatility of oil and natural gas prices is the most obvious manifestation, resulting from the practical shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the passage that connects the Persian Gulf to the rest of the planet.
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But the consequences of disrupting trade across much of the Middle East are much broader and increasingly visible in sectors beyond energy.
From industrial commodities to tropical fruits, products needed in one place are getting stuck in another. The longer hostilities last, the greater the disruption for consumers and businesses across the global economy.
These impacts represent a challenge to the idea that globalization is behind us, a thesis popularized by nationalist movements on several continents.
President Donald Trump has been waging a trade war with the aim of forcing the return of industrial production to the United States. China and India have sought possibilities for self-sufficiency.
Still, the war in the Middle East highlighted the persistence of global economic integration. Supply chains are not only still active, they are also expanding, increasing risks when the flow of goods is disrupted.
“Every time there is a disruption like this, predictions emerge that it is the end of globalization,” said Steven A. Altman, a globalization expert at New York University’s Stern School of Business and co-author of a recent study on the continued expansion of trade and investment between countries. “The narrative is different from reality.”
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The turmoil of the Covid-19 pandemic has shown how bottlenecks in maritime transport can trigger chain problems. A ship jam off a Southern California port leaves chemicals needed to make paint in Delaware stranded.
It also ties up containers that could be used to load goods in China, delaying exports of electronics destined for Ireland and raising the cost of transporting cargo around the world.
These lessons have led companies to emphasize commitments to “supply chain resilience” beyond the traditional drive for efficiency. Retailers like Walmart have moved some production from Asia to Mexico, reducing the distance between factories and consumers to limit exposure to the risks of global trade.
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But the move toward more regional trade appears to be reversing, according to Altman’s report.
From 2020 to 2023, the share of American imports from Mexico and Canada rose from 26% to 29%. However, in the first nine months of 2025, it fell to 27%.
As the pandemic fades into memory, international companies are once again seeking out lower-cost suppliers, wherever they are.
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And, as the Trump administration dismantles federal programs aimed at expanding renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, the country is more exposed to the effects of rising oil and gas prices.
All this indicates that the interruption of maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf tends to spread dysfunctions widely.
The most immediate crisis revolves around energy. Oil tankers were attacked. Oil facilities were closed. The war caused “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” declared the International Energy Agency.
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Not even the coordinated release of oil reserves by 30 countries was able to prevent the price of a barrel from rising above US$100 again. The prospect of a sustained rise in energy prices led economists to warn of the risk of stagflation, a term created to describe the impact of the shocks of the 1970s: stagnant economic growth and higher prices.
Higher energy prices make fuel more expensive for trucks, ships and planes, increasing freight transport costs. Higher gas and air-conditioning bills leave families with less money to spend on goods and services — a brake on economic growth.
Companies that import products into the United States, the world’s largest economy, face uncertainty over the future of Trump’s tariffs after the Supreme Court ruled he overstepped his presidential authority.
“We have created a level of uncertainty equal to or greater than during the pandemic,” said Nick Vyas, a supply chain expert at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business. “It’s the perfect storm for stagflation.”
In Southeast Asia, shrimp and tropical fruit producers now face difficulties transporting their products to Europe and North America.
From India to Indiana, farmers are dealing with higher fertilizer prices due to disruptions in supplies produced in the Persian Gulf.
The price of aluminum is rising, amid obstacles to shipping from Qatar and Bahrain. Helium, an essential element for making chips, may soon become scarce.
“It’s not just about oil,” Vyas said. “It’s a question of industrial supply.”
The Gulf is a dominant source of urea, the main form of nitrogen fertilizer. Its production requires ammonia, which is made from natural gas. As long as energy production is hampered, the ability to manufacture fertilizers will be limited. Urea prices have already risen significantly.
If farmers reduce their fertilizer use to save money, it could lower harvests, reducing food supply and raising prices. In vulnerable countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, this can lead to increased malnutrition.
At the heart of the concerns is the disruption of shipping routes and air cargo hubs in the Persian Gulf.
With planes unable to land and refuel at major airports in Dubai and Doha on flights between Europe and Asia, aircraft had to change routes, often passing through Central Asia. This lengthened journeys, requiring more fuel. And it forced companies to reduce the amount of cargo transported.
This is the time of year when large importers tend to negotiate annual contracts with shipping companies. Container transport prices were relatively low due to an excess of new ships entering the market.
But now carriers are embracing the expectation that fuel prices will rise significantly at the same time as some routes are disrupted by the war.
“It’s really one thing after another in this industry,” said Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, a global logistics company.
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