The world, as well as the markets, were plunged into complete confusion about what is going to happen with Iran as the US president first announced that Iran would not strike Iranian energy infrastructure for five days and then claimed that secret talks were underway with Iran, causing a whirlwind of leaks and information about the “talks”, as well as a wave of denials from the Iranian side.
The respected leader who is not Khamenei
Trump has been repeating almost all day today in his public statements that there are talks with Iran, specifically claiming that their interlocutor is a “respected leader” inside Iran who is not Mojtaba Khamenei, that it was the Iranian side that wanted negotiations and that they are very close to an agreement to end the war.
According to him, the talks will probably take place by phone, while the special envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, have participated in the consultations so far.
Mass leaks and information on brokered contacts
On the occasion of the above, Israeli and American media, such as Axios, citing Israeli sources, began to circulate various scenarios and information about what is about to happen, but also about who, or better, who is the interlocutor of the American government.
According to what was reported earlier, causing questions if nothing else, the US has been talking for days with the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and that the talks were mediated by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey.
In addition, according to leaks, there is a possibility of a meeting for negotiations in Islamabad, but also that the USA has already determined the end date of the war, which is April 9.
A storm of denials from Iran
The statements, but also the leaks from Israeli and American media, were followed by a storm of denials from the Iranian leadership. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghai said no talks have taken place with the US since the war began in late February and that Iran’s position on the Strait of Hormuz and the terms of ending the conflict remain unchanged.
Bagay added that “messages have been received from friendly countries regarding the US request for negotiations to end the war.”
Along the same lines, the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, emphasized through his post on X that he and the Iranian leadership are not involved in negotiations with the US and spoke of fake news aimed at speculating on oil prices and manipulating the market.
As he pointed out: “Fake news is being used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and to get the US and Israel out of the impasse they are in.”
Trump insists there are negotiations
Despite denials from Iran, Trump returned to the issue, claiming that negotiations are ongoing and that Iran wants a deal and “this time it means what it says.” As Tehran has even claimed, it has agreed that it “will not acquire a nuclear weapon”.
The US president reiterated that he would give “five days” to reach an agreement and see if “Iran wants peace” and argued that “Iran has one more chance to end threats to America.” As he concluded: “We hope they will take advantage of it because either way, America and the whole world will be much safer.”
The ups and downs of shopping
Markets reacted immediately to Trump’s initially ambiguous statements. Oil prices fell sharply, with Brent down as much as 15% to $96 a barrel and WTI down 13.5% to $85.28, as investors tried to assess the potential stabilization or escalation of the Middle East conflict. Later the picture was reversed and prices rose again to over 100 dollars a barrel.
