The new AtlasIntel survey in partnership with Bloomberg, released this Wednesday (25), points to a relevant change in the 2026 presidential race. For the first time in the recent series, senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) appears numerically ahead of president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in a second round scenario.
In the direct confrontation, Flávio records 47.6% of voting intentions, against 46.6% for Lula. The difference is within the margin of error of one percentage point, but indicates a symbolic reversal in relation to previous surveys.
The trend is repeated in other tested scenarios. When Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is included in the simulation, even though he is ineligible, he reaches 47.4%, while Lula maintains 46.6%. The data suggests a consolidation of the vote in the Bolsonarist camp in the decisive phase of the election.
The president’s stability at this stage appears as a limit. In the different second round scenarios against right-wing names, Lula only varies up to two percentage points, indicating difficulty in expanding his base beyond the already consolidated core.
First round still favors Lula
Despite the pressure in the second round, the president remains ahead at the start. Lula has 45.9% of voting intentions in the first round, while Flávio appears with 40.1%.
The other names remain distant. Renan Santos has 4.4%, Ronaldo Caiado has 3.7%, Romeu Zema has 3.1% and Aldo Rebelo has 0.6%. Blanks and nulls reach 1.9%, while 0.3% were unable to answer.
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Flávio’s growth
The senator’s evolution over the past few months helps explain the new balance. In February, Flávio scored 37.9% in the first round and now reaches 40.1%. Since November, when he placed himself as a pre-candidate, he has accumulated an increase of 17 percentage points.
The movement is associated with the migration of votes from Jair Bolsonaro’s electorate, which begins to reorganize around his son, in addition to the consolidation of the senator’s candidacy in the face of right-wing voters.
Most of the interviews were carried out before Governor Ratinho Junior (PSD) withdrew from the presidential race. Despite the recent change in the political tableau, the person from Paraná still appears in the tested scenarios, which tends to limit the immediate reading of the new configuration of the race for Planalto.
Relevant offset
The research also points to changes in the profile of the electorate. Lula maintains an advantage among women, voters over 35 years of age and intermediate and higher income groups, in addition to remaining competitive in the Southeast and Northeast.
Flávio, in turn, advances in a group sensitive to Lulism: voters with incomes of up to R$2,000, a segment that concentrates beneficiaries of social programs.
The most adverse environment for the government appears in the evaluation indices. Lula’s disapproval reaches 53.5%, while approval is at 45.9%.
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The data helps to understand the shortening of the dispute in the second round and reinforces the view that the president faces a more defined electoral ceiling at this time.
The survey interviewed 5,028 people between March 18 and 23, with a margin of error of one percentage point and a confidence level of 95%.
