Europe could enter a delicate situation in a matter of weeks. Several voices from the energy sector have warned in an interview with the newspaper The Guardian that, if gas and gas traffic is not restored through the The continent will begin to notice a lack of fuel as early as April.
The warning comes from the top of Shell. Its CEO, Wael Sawan, has explained that the interruption of supply from the Middle East is already having effects in different regions of the world and that Europe could be the next to suffer fully.
According to the manager, The impact would not be immediate in all products, but it would be progressive: First, jet fuel has become more expensive—the price of which has skyrocketed—and then diesel and gasoline could be affected, just when demand for spring and summer travel increases.
Although in recent days the price of crude oil has given a small respite and is around $100 per barrel, uncertainty remains high. Everything depends on whether the situation in the Persian Gulf can be unblocked and maritime transport can resume normally.
The problem is not only energy. From the financial sphere, there are also warnings of broader consequences. The president of BlackRock, Larry Fink, has raised a worrying scenario: If the conflict drags on and oil prices rise to $150 per barrel, The global economy could enter a severe recession.
In this context, experts draw two possible paths: an optimistic one, in which an agreement is reached and prices return to more stable levels, and a much more tense one, with expensive energy for years and lasting effects on economic growth.
Meanwhile, governments and large energy companies are working against the clock to secure supplies and avoid outages. However, the warning is clear: if one of the world’s key oil routes is not reopened, Europe could face difficult weeks at the start of spring.
It should be noted that through the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea, they transit approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). This translates into 20% to 30% of world maritime crude oil trade and 20% of global consumption.
