The war in Iran has once again put Europeans in front of the mirror. Fossil fuel dependence as main energy source It also supposes the dependence on third parties and an extremely volatile market. In response, the European Commission has called for focusing efforts on transition towards green energy sources.
In 1956, it was the Suez canal crisis, In 1970, the instability in the Middle Eastand in 2022, the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “Markets became unstable and energy prices rose in Europe. Now, in 2026, there is another geopolitical crisis. There is Greater instability in fossil fuel markets and, once again, energy prices have risen again in Europe,” the Energy Commissioner told the European Parliament, Dan Jorgensen.
“Dear friends, when will we learn? And if we don’t learn, who else can we blame?” the Dane asked. “The truth is that we have nationally produced energy sources: renewable and nuclear. Their prices have remained the same for the last 10 days,” he recalled. the president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in the middle of the crisis.
A price problem
The European Union does not have, for now, a supply problem, but it is costly because it is much more exposed than its competitors to the volatility of gas prices, which have skyrocketed in recent weeks. Although far from the figures that were reached in 2022, The crisis threatens to undermine the European economy. The Commissioner for Economy, Vladis Dombrovskisacknowledged last Friday that this cut could reach 0.6 points depending on how long the crisis lasts.
but the problem is not alone in the crisis in Iran. In 2021, Europeans imported a 28% of gas from the United States, 20% from Qatar, 20% from Russia, 14% from Nigeria and 11% from Algeria. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, much of the efforts were focused on reduce dependence on gas from Russia. The objective then was to diversify suppliers.
In practice, this has not been entirely the case. European countries have significantly reduced imports of Russian gas, but at the same time they have significantly increased their dependence on the United States. 58% of the gas that the EU imported in 2025 was American. With growing tension with the White House, this could also pose a risk.
The European Commissioner for Energy and Housing, Dan Jørgensen. / OLIVIER HOSLET / EFE
The independence of renewables
Europeans have an energy problem and, for the Commission, the solution lies in recover the green agenda. In 2022, in response to the war in Ukraine, the Twenty-seven committed to accelerate the process to end dependence on fossil fuels and reinforce the development of renewable energies.
Between 2021 and 2024, it is estimated that the capacity to generate wind and solar energy has increased by 58% cumulatively. In 2023, the EU set the goal of generating 45% of electricity using renewable energy sources by 2030. In the midst of war, Brussels asks to give new impetus to this agenda.
In the latest Commission report on the EU energy mix published in 2025, although with data from 2023, The block imported 58% of the energy it consumed, compared to 42% produced in community territory. Of all the energy produced in the EU, 46% came from renewable energy sources.
If we focus on energy production, however, The EU uses on average 39% renewable energy, 31% fossil fuels and 22% nuclear energy. But if we look at the figures by country, Malta, Cyprus, Poland or Italy have a disproportionate dependence of fossil fuels compared to Sweden, Finland or France, whose energy mix is mostly nuclear and renewable energy. That is why the impact varies from one country to another.
Brussels insists that reducing dependency involves betting on green energy. “We must redouble our efforts on our path towards energy independence. We must continue cbuilding a true energy union by deploying more renewable energy, strengthening our networks and creating a true single electricity market“said Jorgensen.
Steam rises from the Neurath lignite power plant, operated by German energy company RWE, near Grevenbroich, Germany. / SASCHA STEINBACH / EFE
Short and long term
“While we may need to do something in the short term to relieve some pressure on oil prices and also on gas, in the medium term it is quite clear that we need to promote a more renewable energy system and increase our resilience,” Bernd Weber, executive director of the Council for Energy and Climate Policies and Innovation.
The European Commission works a plan to cushion the short-term impact of the crisis and medium and long-term structural measures that prevent this scenario from occurring again. In Weber’s eyes, it is essential that both plans go hand in hand so that short-term measures do not have a negative impact on subsequent reforms. “The important thing now is that heShort-term measures align well with medium-term measures and point in the same direction,” he emphasizes.
For the expert, although we have seen this debate before, there is a push in that direction. “It takes time, but I think the effort to change the energy systemfor preparing it for an increasingly renewable future, if you are accelerating” Weber said. “We will also need natural gas in the future, but we can limit the amount of natural gas if we do our job well“, insists.
In the debate on possible short-term measures, the possibility of suspending the carbon emissions market, that countries like Italy are asking for. This is one of the measures that Weber identifies as potentially counterproductive in the medium and long term, by sending the wrong signal to the markets. “It doesn’t make sense encourage the consumption of natural gas or even build unnecessary additional natural gas plants in the short term, while In the medium term we really want to achieve the opposite.“he explains.
At the same time, Weber, like the Commission, focuses on thethe need to improve infrastructure, and in particular networksto strengthen the European market, “especially to keep renewable energy flowing“. A message that the commissioner himself also launched. “We must never depend on fossil fuels again”stated Jørgensen.
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