Contrary to the common sense that advertising on TV and radio has become little relevant in , the campaigns of the president (PT) and the senator (PL-RJ) are betting on official advertising in these vehicles as one of the central points of the dispute. Therefore, they work to strengthen their coalitions — the support of large parties increases the candidate’s television time — to gain an advantage over their opponent on these channels.
Members of both campaigns believe that advertising on these stations will still play an important role because of the public reached by open TV, with incomes of up to two minimum wages. It is the electorate in which Lula is strongest (52% to 37% in the second round against Flávio, according to *). Radio can also help by reaching the corners of the country.
In a contest that is shaping up to be extremely tight, the strategy is not to bet everything on social media and obtain a greater number of insertions on TV and radio both to strengthen positive feelings towards the candidate and present his proposals and to deconstruct the opponent’s image and increase rejection among key segments of the electorate.
It is based on this strategy that Flávio has to establish an alliance, especially the federation between ee. Lula already knows that these acronyms will not join his coalition, but he works to gain support in certain states, split them and prevent them from formally joining the ticket of his main opponent.
If he remains isolated, with support only from the PL, Flávio will have less propaganda time than Lula in the first round: 49% will stay with the PT member and 35% with him. In addition to the insertions throughout the program, also proportional to the size of the coalition, the president would be entitled to 5 minutes and 44 seconds of the daily program and Flávio would have 4min35s. The candidate from , , would have 2 minutes and 11 seconds.
If he gets the support of União Brasil, PP and Republicans, however, Flávio will have almost twice as much advertising and daily insertions as Lula, with 57% of advertising against 32% for the PT member. It would be a larger coalition than when his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), ran for re-election, and would give him a robust structure on TV and radio.
The alliance with the center would give the PL presidential candidate 7 minutes and 5 seconds of the daily electoral program to disseminate his ideas and deconstruct his opponent’s management. The president would have 3 minutes and 51 seconds to present his proposals, rebut criticism and counterattack. The PSD candidate would have just 1 minute and 34 seconds.
This account considers the most likely scenario today, in which only three parties — a rule that requires a party to reach a minimum number of votes or seats to have access to resources such as party funds and TV time — will run for President.
Other pre-candidates, such as former governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (Novo), former deputy Aldo Rebelo (DC) and political activist Renan Santos (Missão), will not have the right to propaganda, as their parties did not elect enough federal deputies in the last election.
Lula is also trying to expand his range of alliances and electoral propaganda time by seeking out the MDB for his coalition with the offer of the vice-presidential position. More than half of the MDB state directories, however, in the election, to block the movement of the group from the North and Northeast in favor of the PT member.
Estimates were made by Sheet based on the calculation of political scientist Henrique Cardoso Oliveira, from Fundação 1º de Maio (linked to Solidariedade), on the advertising time of each party: 90% is divided according to the number of federal deputies elected in 2022 and another 10% equally between the candidates.
The calculation is only valid for the first round of the election, when the propaganda division considers the size of each candidate’s support. In the second stage, the two candidates who pass divide the time equally, with 50% for each candidacy, regardless of the number of parties in their coalitions.
Official advertising on television and radio will begin on August 28th and run until October 1st. In addition to the electoral program, which runs for 12:30 minutes daily and is shown on Tuesdays and Thursdays and on Saturdays in the case of the presidential election, there are advertising insertions throughout the normal programming, which can be divided into 30 or 60 second pills.
In relation to the 2022 election, Lula must win the support of the PDT (which at the time ran with Ciro Gomes) and lose from Solidariedade and Pros. Flávio Bolsonaro is working to win the support of União Brasil (which launched Senator Soraya Thronicke against her father in 2022 and with the PP) and repeat the alliance with the Republicans.
The role of the dwarf parties is still uncertain. Four years ago, Lula had the support of Agir, Avante, Pros and Solidariedade in the election. Pros was incorporated into Solidariedade, which broke with Lula due to lack of space in the government. The party is currently in a federation with the PRD and should remain neutral in the dispute, focusing on the election of federal deputies.
Avante, on the other hand, has not decided its position on the 2026 election. The acronym will result in at least 11 extra seconds on TV for the candidate it supports, depending on the positioning of the other subtitles. Other parties that could change the situation are the PSDB/Cidadania federation and Podemos, which do not intend to launch their own name and are currently not aligned with any candidacy.
*Datafolha interviewed 2,004 voters in 137 municipalities from March 3 to 5. With a margin of error of plus or minus two points, the survey is registered with the Electoral Court under code BR-03715/2026.
