ANALYSIS | It’s the USA against Iran and in the end China wins
Will China want to mediate peace between the US and Iran?
by Simone McCarthy e Sophia SaifiCNN
China’s influence was in the spotlight this week after Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar visited Beijing on Tuesday for talks with his counterpart Wang Yi – a meeting that comes as Islamabad has positioned itself as a peace broker in the conflict in Iran.
In a statement on the “restoration of peace” released Tuesday, both countries called for an “immediate ceasefire”, peace talks “as soon as possible” and a lasting peace, supported by the UN.
“China and Pakistan support the relevant parties in initiating talks,” the two sides said in their five-point initiative, released after what Islamabad described as “hours of engagement” between Dar and Wang.
This initiative is the most detailed vision Beijing has presented so far on how to resolve the conflict. And it also calls for the safety of maritime routes; an end to attacks against civilians and non-military targets; and to safeguarding the sovereignty and security of both Iran and the Gulf states.
But this position, expressed in broad terms, also raises questions about what concrete steps Beijing would take in a future peace process. How deeply are you willing to get involved in a conflict that takes place in an unstable region, where you balance relationships with partners on both sides?
Official Pakistani sources told CNN that one of the topics Dar was likely to discuss while in China was the possibility of Beijing acting as a guarantor to secure a peace deal.
Two Pakistani sources also confirmed that while a four-way meeting between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan was taking place in Islamabad earlier this week, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari held meetings at the Chinese embassy to discuss the ongoing regional situation.
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry spokesman declined to answer questions on Tuesday regarding discussions with China, saying these talks are too “sensitive and nuanced” for the Ministry to make any statements based on assumptions. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately respond to a CNN request for comment.
Iran has given mixed signals. President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Tuesday that the country was ready to stop fighting under certain conditions, “especially the necessary guarantees to prevent the recurrence of aggression,” according to Iranian state media. At the same time, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran is prepared for “at least six months” of war.
Pakistan has offered to host talks between its neighbor Iran and the US, taking advantage of its position as a power with stable ties with both. Dar’s trip to China on Tuesday was made at Wang’s invitation, according to statements from both foreign ministries.
A guarantor?
While presenting itself as a voice for peace and a responsible mediator in this global conflict, Beijing is expected to proceed cautiously.
“China has every incentive to show off its diplomatic mediation,” says Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “You want the world to see a contrast: while the United States generates turmoil and chaos, China positions itself as a force for de-escalation, stability and peace.”
“What Beijing is actually willing to contribute materially, however, is another question,” he adds.
This is not China’s first attempt to present itself as a peacemaker in international conflicts.
The head of Chinese diplomacy, Wang Yi
Beijing welcomed talks following border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia last year. It also put forward multi-pronged proposals to end the war in Ukraine – albeit with limited effect, with critics saying these efforts were more an exercise in polishing China’s image than sincere attempts at conciliation.
Regarding the current conflict, Chinese strategists may see benefits in the US being stuck in a stalemate, which undermines global US credibility due to an economically ruinous war; Still, Beijing fears the repercussions this could have on its own economy, which is heavily dependent on exports.
It is also highly unlikely that Beijing will accept any kind of role as guarantor that requires the contribution of military means or guarantees to ensure peace. In parallel with this, China is widely seen as having limited influence on security issues in the Middle East.
It is unclear what such an arrangement would entail. A diplomatic source familiar with the four-way talks in Islamabad tells CNN that the issue was raised as the four countries involved explored different ways to “creatively bridge the gaps between the various stakeholders.”
Such an arrangement would run counter to China’s reticence to make military commitments. Beijing would also welcome its distance from any agreement that would oblige it to monitor and punish violations of the ceasefire, especially one that could potentially draw it into a conflict with the US.
Although China maintains a decades-old mutual defense treaty with North Korea, it has traditionally avoided alliances and called for an overhaul of the US-led international security model.
“To be sure, as China’s hard and soft power grows, there is a growing domestic debate about whether Beijing should mobilize its capabilities more proactively to expand global influence and consolidate its status as a leading power. Still, Iran is an unlikely setting for such an investment,” says Zhao.
Peace mediator?
China has followed a careful diplomatic line throughout more than four weeks of war in Iran, calling for a ceasefire and holding a series of meetings and talks on the issue. But she has also been clear about where she thinks the momentum to end the conflict – and its global economic ramifications – should lie.
“The one who tied the knot must be the one who unties it,” China’s Middle East envoy Zhai Jun said last week, in a clear reference to the US and Israel, when asked about the circumstances under which a ceasefire could be reached.
Chinese analysts also reflect an acute awareness on Beijing’s part of the deep-rooted challenges in resolving a conflict where the two sides have little trust and much animosity.
“China has asked both sides for an immediate ceasefire, but I doubt either side will actually listen to that kind of advice at this stage. For the United States, they are already stuck in the dilemma of having to hold out; for Iran, they need revenge that will at least save face,” says Senior Colonel (retired) Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
China may not take a role in the peace talks as Pakistan has already taken that position, he adds.
Beijing has, in fact, played a key role in mediating a rapprochement between Iran and longtime rival Saudi Arabia in 2023. And Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s alternative vision for international security includes Beijing as a mediator.
China’s relations with the main players in this conflict, including Iran and the US, as well as Pakistan, could help it gain access to all sides in peace talks, according to Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University in Beijing.
But China is also weighing the implications of its diplomacy for its own priorities, in particular U.S. President Donald Trump’s expected visit to China in May and other future diplomacy anticipated between the two leaders this year.
China could seek to play a role as a gesture of goodwill toward the US, but it has also been cautious that the war does not harm that relationship.
“We don’t want Iran or any other phenomenon to undermine that trust,” says Renmin University’s Wang, referring to future diplomatic exchanges.
