Flávio appears for the first time numerically ahead of Lula in the second round
Datafolha research released this Saturday (11) shows that President Lula (PT) has lost an advantage in relation to previous surveys and is technically tied with Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Romeu Zema (Novo) in possible second round scenarios.
Flávio appears for the first time numerically ahead of Lula in the second roundconsidering only valid votes:
Lula × Flávio Bolsonaro: Lula 45%, Flávio Bolsonaro 46%
Lula × Ronaldo Caiado: Lula 45%, Ronaldo Caiado 42%
Lula × Romeo Zema: Lula 45%, Romeu Zema 42%
In the stimulated first round scenario, when the names of the pre-candidates are not presented to the interviewee, the current president leads more easily:
Lula: 26%
Flávio Bolsonaro: 16%
Ronaldo Caiado: 2%
In stimulated research, when names are mentioned, the competition is tighter:
Lula: 39%
Flávio Bolsonaro: 35%
Ronaldo Caiado: 5%
Romeo Low: 4%
Renan Santos (Mission): 2%
Aldo Rebelo (DC): 1%
Corporal Daciolo (Mobiliza): 1%
Blank/null: 10%
Don’t know: 4%
Flávio and Lula remain the pre-candidates most rejected by those interviewed:
Lula: 48%
Flávio Bolsonaro: 46%
Romeo Low: 17%
Ronaldo Caiado: 16%
The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus two points and interviewed 2,004 voters in 137 cities from Tuesday (7) to Thursday (9). He is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) with code BR-03770/2026.
