The president’s government (PT) follows the elections in Hungary, Colombia and Peru as part of the same global movement, seen as a test of external influence – especially from the United States.
The concern increases in light of the Brazilian elections in October. The assessment is that the cases help to measure global political trends, such as the mobilization capacity of the right and the reach of external influences in elections.
On Sunday (April 12), Hungary calls into question 16 years of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán (Fidesz, extreme right) and the American ability to influence elections. On the same day, Peru will choose between dozens of candidates during one of the biggest governance setbacks in the Americas. On May 31, Colombia defines the successor of Gustavo Petro (Historic Pact, left) in a race that charts the course of the left on the continent.
In Planalto, the reading is that, despite the differences between the 3 cases, there is one common element: the dispute between political projects in a more polarized international scenario with a greater presence of external actors.
HUNGARY AS A CASE STUDY
The Hungarian election was classified by Politico Europa magazine as the most important in the European Union in 2026.
Viktor Orbán is seeking a 5th consecutive term in office in the face of the most serious challenge of his career: former ally Péter Magyar (Tisza, center-right), founder of the Tisza party.
Orbán is a reference for the global right. He received the Argentine Javier Milei (La Libertad Avanza, right) in March and the Chilean José Antonio Kast (Republican Party, right) in February.
Despite this, he tries to balance relations with different poles of power. Although Hungary is a member of the EU and NATO, Orbán maintains closeness to Vladimir Putin’s Russia and political dialogue with US President Donald Trump (Republican Party).
The relationship with Trump is marked by ideological affinity and political strategy, with convergence on issues such as immigration, national sovereignty and criticism of multilateral institutions.
The race gained a greater geopolitical dimension when US Vice President, JD Vance (Republican Party, right), decided to go to Budapest to participate in a rally alongside Orbán.
The visit turned the Hungarian election into a test of America’s ability to influence electoral processes in other countries.
LATIN AMERICA IN TENSION
In Latin America, Peru and Colombia are on the radar as examples of a more unstable regional environment.
In Peru, general elections will be held during a prolonged governance problem. The country has had successive changes of president in recent years, which, in Planalto’s assessment, weakens the institutional environment.
The multiplicity of candidacies and the absence of a clear favorite reinforce the risk of political fragmentation and instability in the country.
Among the main candidates are Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular, right), Rafael López Aliaga (Renovación Popular, extreme right), Carlos Álvarez (outsider populist) and Alfonso López Chau (left). Jorge Nieto (center), César Acuña (center-right) and Roberto Sánchez (left) also appear.
In the Colombian case, the recent history of power alternation and political fragmentation are seen as factors that increase the unpredictability of the electoral process.
Iván Cepeda (Historic Pact, on the left) appears as one of the names linked to the government camp. On the other side, the opposition is articulated with candidates such as Sergio Fajardo (center) and Federico Gutiérrez (right) – who stand out more than Petro.
The result may indicate the degree of resilience of left-wing governments in the region in the face of a more adverse political environment.
Domestic scenario
The escalation of tension between the United States and Venezuela that the international scenario would impact the Brazilian political environment in 2026.
In view of this, the president’s assistants began to monitor more closely the movements of Brazilian actors and external agendas on sensitive topics such as sovereignty and institutional security.
The concern is added to the monitoring of statements by allies of the former president (PL), who, in Planalto’s view, have sought to internationalize the Brazilian political debate.
Recent episodes are mentioned, such as the participation of the senator (PL-RJ) at CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference, in English translation). On that occasion, the senator external monitoring of elections in Brazil and criticized Judiciary decisions, especially in the field of freedom of expression.
Flávio Bolsonaro in a speech at CPAC on March 28, 2026
The performance of one of Flávio’s brothers is also mentioned. Former federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) lives in the United States and maintains frequent dialogue with leaders of the American right.
These movements, added to the political reaction to the tariff imposed by the United States, indicate to Planalto an attempt to internationalize the domestic debate and open space for external pressure on Brazilian institutions.
To achieve this, the Lula government uses pills. On April 17, the president . In commitments in Spain and Germany, will include in discussions debates about democracy, polarization and extremism.
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