According to the Focus Bulletin, which brings together projections from financial market economists, the estimate for the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) this year approaching the target ceiling.
The presenter of Resenha do Dinheiro, Marilia Fontes explains that the movement marks a relevant change in the recent trend.
“Expectations were falling, but from February onwards, with the increase in tensions in the Middle East, they started to rise again and bothered the Central Bank”, he states.
This and other economic issues will be covered in the program and and help make better decisions in the market.
The inflation target defined by the CMN (National Monetary Council) is 3%, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points up or down, that is, a limit of up to 4.5%.
Marilia highlights that deterioration is not limited to 2026. “In 2027, inflation is projected at 3.85%, 2028 at 3.6% and 2029 at 3.5%.”
This scenario gained even more relevance because it occurs amid an attempt to ease monetary policy.
The basic interest rate, the Selic, is currently at 14.75% per year, after the BC
Before the escalation of tensions involving Iran, market expectations were for a larger reduction, of 0.5 points.
“In the last statement, the Central Bank even indicated that it could accelerate the pace of decline, but ended up opting for a smaller cut. The expectation was for an improvement in the scenario, which did not happen in prices linked to the war, nor in inflation projections”, he notes.
According to Thiago Godoy, the “Financial Dad”, the behavior of expectations is a central point as it influences directly real inflation.
“Inflation expectations are almost a prophecy that tends to come true. When they are higher, businesspeople start to readjust prices and strategies, and this ends up appearing in the everyday economy”, he explains.
The presenter analyzes this effect. “If the market anticipates increases in costs such as fuel, freight or food, prices begin to adjust even before these impacts materialize. This makes it difficult to control inflation.”
At the same time, according to data from Caged (General Register of Employed and Unemployed). The heated job market supports consumption, even in an environment of high interest rates.
This set of factors makes the scenario more challenging for monetary policy.
“There is a lag in interest rate policy. On average, the effect of a rise in the Selic appears more strongly around nine months later”, assesses Fontes.
The space for more intense cuts in the basic rate is limited, which requires caution from investors, especially those positioned in assets that are pre-fixed to interest rate movements.
Money Review
Carried out with the support of B3 and investment manager BlackRock, the program is presented by Marilia Fontes, founding partner of Nord Investimentos; Thiago Godoy, the “Finance Daddy”; Bernardo Pascowitch, founder and CEO of Yubb; and proposes a light, direct and uncomplicated approach to topics related to financial education and investments.
The program will address the main news and movements in the economy every week with the lightness of an informal conversation — like a review between friends, in a bar or after football — but without losing the analysis and content.
The Money Review airs every Friday, at 7pm, on the channel CNN Money on YouTube and on Sundays at 3pm on CNN Brasil.
