End of the Orbán era: populism suffers unprecedented defeat in Hungary since 2010

Viktor Orbán’s defeat in the elections in Hungary marks the end of 16 years of Fidesz governance and raises questions about the future of populism in Europe, in a context of strong political change in Budapest

Budapest, Hungary — The means that Hungary will have a change of government for the first time since 2010.

Although polls indicated a decisive victory for the opposition Tisza party, many of its supporters refused to imagine what victory would feel like. After 16 years of rule by the illiberal Fidesz party, the electoral terrain had been tilted so heavily against its opponents that some questioned whether an alternative was possible.

Therefore, when Orbán conceded defeat to his opponent, Péter Magyar, for some it seemed like a change of regime. András Petöcz, writer and poet, said the feeling reminded him of Budapest during the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“I was 30 years old when the communist regime ended. It’s the same feeling – the same,” he told CNN from the banks of the Danube, where thousands of Fidesz supporters gathered to hear the results.

Magyar, the new prime minister, told the crowd: “Together we replaced the Orbán regime. Together we freed Hungary. We took back our country.”

Although many uncertainties still remain — from the size of Tisza’s parliamentary majority to how it will begin to dismantle the system built by Fidesz — Orbán’s defeat showed the dead end of populism. His defeat offers lessons for those who wanted to imitate him and for those who wanted to see him go.

The first lesson is that it is difficult to internationalize nationalism. Having governed for so long as a defender of national sovereignty — promising to protect Hungary from alleged threats from the European Union and liberal ideology — Orbán’s campaign ended up relying heavily on the support of his powerful international allies in the United States and Russia.

Sent to Budapest last week to help the Trump administration’s closest ally in Europe, Vice President JD Vance said he was willing to help Orbán “as much as possible.” Donald Trump went even further: “GO OUT AND VOTE FOR VIKTOR ORBÁN,” he wrote on Truth Social. “He is a true friend, fighter and WINNER.”

The Trump administration’s attempts to reach out were unsuccessful. While some Hungarians — gathered in a Budapest function room to hear Vance speak on Tuesday — were undoubtedly flattered by the attention from a superpower and grateful to the prime minister who got it, there is something contradictory about imagining that people will vote for a nationalist politician just because a foreign power told them to.

Before Orbán’s defeat, Ivan Krastev, a Bulgarian political scientist who has known Orbán since the 1990s, told CNN: “The irony is that if he loses, he will lose as a globalist.” By appealing to foreign allies, Orbán was “doing exactly what is normally expected of strongly internationalist political leaders.”

One of the reasons Orbán’s campaign has focused so much on foreign policy is his poor domestic performance. This is another lesson from its defeat: populism is about winning the day, the week, the news cycle. To work, this governance model based on successive conflicts needs a constant flow of enemies. Orbán found many: NGOs, liberal universities, the European Union.

But eventually they run out of dragons to defeat. Much of Orbán’s campaign has vilified neighboring Ukraine. Budapest is covered in posters of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Some say: “Danger!” Others: “Don’t let him have the last word.”

Without a strong economy, a well-run healthcare system or other positive political outcomes, Orbán’s campaign sought to scare Hungarians into voting for Fidesz, presenting it as the “safe option” to protect the country from threats allegedly coming from Ukraine. “He always talks about sovereignty, but believing that the main threat to Hungarian sovereignty came from Ukraine became almost comical,” said Krastev.

To counter these vague warnings, Péter Magyar only had to point out the state of the country — something that many Hungarians evaluated negatively.

For those who want to defeat populists, Orbán’s defeat also offers lessons. Despite the landslide victory, many left-wing and liberal voters are not entirely enthusiastic about Magyar, a former Fidesz member who remains deeply conservative.

However, Hungarians rallied around Magyar, rightly considering him their best electoral chance of defeating Orbán. Péter Krekó, a political scientist who runs Political Capital, a think tank in Budapest, told CNN that Hungary’s more liberal voters have not allowed the perfect to become the enemy of the good.

In a victory speech in front of the Hungarian parliament, Magyar said he was aware of the challenges. He called on Orbán to act as an “interim manager” and not make the work of the new government difficult.

But for his supporters, the question of whether Tisza will be able to dismantle Orbán’s model and govern effectively is for another night.

“It would be a welcome turnaround if Hungary moved from a model of illiberalism, post-truth and authoritarianism in the West to a model of democratic change,” Krekó said. We’ll see.