IMF raises growth projection for Brazil’s economy to 1.9% in 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised this Tuesday (14) the growth projection for Brazil’s economy to 1,9% em 2026, exceeding the estimate of 1.6% made in January. The improvement in outlook is linked to the impact of the war in the Middle Easta scenario that, according to the organization, can benefit the country due to its net energy exporter status.

In addition to exports, the IMF highlighted the clean energy matrix like a shield against global instability. “It is also important to highlight that Brazil is one of the countries with a high percentage of renewable energy, which is another mitigating factor” of the crisis, explained Petya Koeva-Brooks, deputy director of the Fund’s Research Department, at a press conference.

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) report also points out that Brazil is protected by a solid economic foundation. According to the document, the country has a adequate level of international reserves, low dependence on foreign currency debt, ample government liquidity reserves and one flexible exchange rate.

Despite optimism for 2026, the IMF revised downwards the projection of the Gross Domestic Product (Brazilian GDP) for 2027, falling from 2.3% (January estimate) to 2%. The Fund warns that, next year, the country will feel the effects of a “slowdown in global demand, increased input costs (including fertilizers) and more restrictive financial conditions“.

Global scenario

Brazil’s situation contrasts with the international scenario. Due to the instability generated by the conflict in the Middle East, the IMF reduced global growth projection to 3.1% em 2026.

I and Latin America and the Caribbeanalso driven by commodity exporters, had a slight increase in forecastreaching 2,3%. However, the Fund warned of the disparity in the region: while giants or energy producers such as Brazil and Venezuela (4%) benefit, smaller economies are the most negatively affected by the global crisis.

*With information from AFP