The government’s measures to contain the rise in fuel prices “are acting as a ‘handbrake'”, according to a weekly price report from the IBPT (Brazilian Institute of Planning and Taxation) provided exclusively to CNN Money.
“They prevent the car from accelerating downhill (astronomical prices), but they do not have the strength to make the car climb back up (low January prices). The cost of energy in 2026 has become a structural problem that tax policy alone is unable to resolve”, says the IBPT.
“When analyzing the first two weeks of April in relation to the end of March 2026, the data reveals an attempt at stabilization, albeit at very high levels. The market stopped rising vertically (as occurred in March), but prices did not return to pre-war levels”, he points out.
To contain the rise in diesel, and a .
After , since , the first weeks of April show a slight slowdown in the pace of growth, and even a small negative correction in some regions, according to the weekly survey.
“This indicates that the initial ‘supply shock’ of the war was absorbed by distributors, who now work with regulatory stocks, allowing a marginal downward fluctuation after the peak of panic”, analyzes the institute.
With the replacement cost uncertain, the distribution market needs to work with a kind of “safety cushion” to ensure that there are no shortages in regions furthest from the ports, according to the president of IBPT, Gilberto Luiz do Amaral.
In the case of gasoline, however, the institute found that the fuel “did not show a decline from March to April; on the contrary, it consolidated the increases.”
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“While petroleum derivatives, such as C gasoline and diesel, registered an aggressive price escalation at distributors to absorb international market shocks, hydrated ethanol showed atypical deflation behavior in four of the five Brazilian regions”, notes the research.
“This scenario reflects both the pressure from the exchange rate and the oil barrel as well as the seasonal relief provided by the start of the sugar cane harvest in the Center-South”, he explains.
Logistics vulnerability
However, the regional sections expose “a logistical vulnerability” in the country, says Gilberto Luiz do Amaral.
“The 30% increase in diesel in the Northeast is a symptom of a market that has not yet found efficient protection mechanisms against geopolitical shocks of this magnitude”, points out the president of IBPT.
“April’s data reveals a fragmented Brazil. While the Center-South manages to mitigate the crisis with biofuels, the North and Northeast are exposed to the cruelty of international prices. Without a more robust cabotage infrastructure,” he concludes.
While gasoline has risen 5.83% in the South and 6.18% in the Southeast since the start of the war, fuel has risen by more than 11% in the North and Northeast.
As for diesel, while the South-Southeast axis registered an increase of 19.14%, the Northeast faces an increase of 28.37%.
Finally, ethanol falls in all regions of the country, except the Northeast, where prices are 5.43% higher than before the conflict.
