The international geopolitical scenario is going through a moment of strong instability, marked by contradictory signals coming from the United States and the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The combination of ambiguous statements by US authorities and concrete military movements has made it difficult to read the next steps in the conflict, directly affecting the global economy.
According to the professor of International Security at UFRJ (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro) and researcher at the Princeton Institute for Advanced Studies, in the USA, Fernando Brancolio .
“Trump’s statements vary depending on the time of day. He has already made statements that he will implement a nuclear agreement with Iran, which in his words would be much more interesting than the one signed by Obama”, he states.
At the same time, actions on the field indicate a more aggressive direction. “What we observe on the ground is that the United States is implementing a naval blockade, including attacks on Iranian ships”, highlights the professor, pointing out the discrepancy between speech and practice.
There is this ambiguity. According to Brancoli, volatility has become evident in recent days. “The price of oil seems like a rollercoaster, with successive falls and rises. We see rises on the American stock market followed by falls soon after. This process is confusing”, he explains.
The behavior of political leaders also contributes to the scenario of uncertainty. The North American vice president, JD Vance, is cited as an example of this instability. “He made two antagonistic statements recently. First, he said he was going to Pakistan to negotiate something practically agreed upon and, two hours later, he stated that the negotiations will probably start from scratch”, he reports.
