Even after the BC ban, foreign platforms remain accessible; PT drops 3 points and reaches lowest level since applications began
After the decision of the Central Bank of Brazil, data show that bets on the victory of the pre-candidate and senator (PL-RJ) exceed those on the name of the president (PT), who is seeking re-election.
Until 9am this Friday (April 24, 2026), platform users concentrated 39% of bets on Lula e 38.3% in Flávio. After the ban was announced, the PT member lost 3 points, concentrating 36% until 4:40 pm this Friday (April 24, 2026). It was the lowest percentage bet on the president’s re-election since applications opened. The senator followed with 38%.
In the previous days, however, Flávio came to lead. On April 18, at 9 am, Flávio gathered approximately 41% of the bets, against 40% for Lula. Two days earlier, on April 16, the 2 were practically tied, with around 40% each.
At the end of March, the scenario was more favorable to the president. On March 31, at 9 am, Lula concentrated 52% of the bets, compared to 29.7% for Flávio.
The numbers reflect users’ positions in contracts negotiated on the platform, which act as bets on the outcome of future events. Prices vary depending on the entry of new participants and changes in perception about the political scenario.
The move occurs on the same day that the CMN (National Monetary Council) published resolution No. 5,298, which prohibits the offering and negotiation, in Brazil, of derivative contracts linked to events such as elections, sports and reality shows.
The rule establishes that these assets cannot be classified as formal financial instruments and determines that the prohibition also applies to contracts negotiated abroad when offered in the country.
According to the Central Bank, operations of this type are similar to betting and present risks such as manipulation, money laundering and impact on the integrity of events.
Despite this, international platforms remain accessible and maintain active contracts on Brazilian politics. Polymarket operates outside the national financial system, based on blockchain technology, which makes direct action by Brazilian authorities difficult.
They establish that access and use of the platform are the responsibility of the user, who must comply with applicable laws in their jurisdiction. The document states that the service should not be used if the activity is prohibited in the user’s country of origin and highlights that the information displayed is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation. The company also states that it does not directly control transactions, which are carried out using blockchain technology, and that it is not responsible for the results of operations carried out by participants.
The government has stated that prediction markets are illegal in Brazil and . The announcement was made by the Minister of Economy, Dario Durigan, after coordination with the Central Bank, CVM (Securities Commission), Ministry of Justice and (Anate (National Telecommunications Agency).
Users commented on the measure on the platform. One of them said: “I want to see everyone here tasking 22 with the end of polymarket in Brazil”.
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