The president () appears ahead in the first round scenario tested by a new BTG/Nexus survey released this Monday (27), but remains tied with the senator () in the event of a possible direct confrontation between the two.
The survey shows the PT member with 41% of voting intentions, compared to 36% for the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL). In this scenario, the former governors (Novo) and () have 4% and 3%, respectively.
Already (Mission) registers 3%, and (Avante) appears with 2%. Aldo Rebelo (Christian Democracy) and (Mobiliza) score 1% each.
In a second round scenario, Lula appears with 46%, compared to Flávio’s 45%. The PT member maintains the same percentage measured in March. The senator’s voting intention, which had 46% that month, fluctuated within the margin of error.
Both in a direct dispute against Zema and in one against Caiado, Lula recorded 45%, while the former governors had 41% depending on who went to the second round — a technical tie at the limit of the margin of error, which indicates a likely advantage for the PT member.
The survey was carried out by telephone between April 24th and 26th. 2,028 voters aged 16 or over were interviewed. The margin of error is two percentage points, with a 95% confidence interval. The survey is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under code BR-01075/2026.
In a first round scenario tested by the institute for the first time in March, without Augusto Cury or Cabo Daciolo, Lula maintains the same 41%, while Flávio went from 38% to 36%.
With this configuration, Zema appears with 5%, Caiado and Renan Santos with 4% each and Aldo Rebelo with 1%.
In just one first round scenario, Lula appears technically tied with Flávio: in a dispute only with Caiado, Renan Santos and Aldo Rebelo. In this case, the PT member registers 41% of intentions, against 38% for the senator.
In this hypothesis, Caiado has 6%, Renan Santos, 4%, and Aldo Rebelo, 1%.
