The government admits to revising the value of the national minimum wage upwards in 2027, opening the possibility of bringing forward previously agreed targets and introducing a new element of negotiation in the next State Budget. The hypothesis arises in a context of ongoing negotiations with social partners and an economic situation marked by signs of slowdown, which raises doubts about the impact of these decisions.
According to the newspaper, the prime minister does not exclude the possibility of the minimum wage reaching 1,000 euros in 2027, despite the tripartite agreement pointing to 970 euros that year and only 1,020 euros in 2028. This possibility has already been communicated to some social partners, although without formal commitment, and could represent an advance of almost a year in relation to the initially defined calendar.
The advancement of this measure depends on the outcome of negotiations in the context of social consultation, in a process that continues without a closed agreement. May 7th will be decisive in understanding whether the proposal gains support or goes directly to Parliament. The publication adds that, if it advances to the Assembly of the Republic, the initiative may face political resistance, with divergent positions between the parties.
At the parliamentary level, the context is one of uncertainty regarding the viability of the measures. According to the same source, the PS should oppose changes to the Labor Code, while Chega admits to making some proposals viable. The same source cites that André Ventura stated that the party will not support measures that affect certain labor rights, but left open the possibility of negotiation on other points.
State Budget will be key
Any change to the minimum wage will have to be integrated into the State Budget for 2027, the preparation process of which will begin in the coming months. Preparatory work begins in June, however, it will only be in September that the forecasts are adjusted, before the final submission of the proposal to Parliament in October.
The possibility of increasing the minimum wage above what was agreed could also function as a political instrument. This decision could serve as an element of negotiation with the opposition. The Executive seeks to assert a strategy of increasing wages, associated with reducing the tax burden on work.
Companies show reservations about the pace
Still, not all economic partners welcome this possible anticipation. There is criticism regarding the direct impact of these measures on companies. According to the same source, some officials consider that these decisions come at an inopportune moment, taking into account the current situation.
The most recent economic data points to a slowdown in activity. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registered signs of stagnation in the first quarter of the year. Phenomena such as storms and international tensions contributed to this scenario, affecting different sectors of the economy.
Energy costs put pressure on companies
The increase in energy prices appears as another pressure factor. There was an increase in inflation and costs in industrial production, meaning this context could have prolonged effects, conditioning investment and families’ disposable income.
Business leaders warn of the risk of loss of competitiveness. There are concerns about the difference in support between Portugal and other countries. Rafael Alves Rocha argued that “the persistence of the shock in the price of energy products will tend to spread to the economy”.
Demanding years on the budget horizon
The prospects for the coming years remain marked by challenges. According to Nascer do Sol, the Public Finance Council anticipates significant spending restrictions. According to the same source, the years 2027 and 2028 should be particularly demanding from a budgetary point of view.
The Government maintains the target of raising the minimum wage to 1600 euros at the end of the legislature. According to the same source, this ambition has generated reservations in the business sector. In any case, there are doubts regarding the ability of companies to withstand increases of this size, given current economic conditions.
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