In two weeks, the US president is expected to visit Beijing, where he will meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, for a crucial meeting scheduled for March.
The former’s statement last week that he intends to maintain the “extraordinary” blockade of Iranian ports until the Iranians give in to his demands has fueled speculation that they will remain closed until his arrival in China on May 14.
Yet that’s exactly what Trump was trying to avoid when he postponed that particular trip six weeks ago. Under these circumstances, the meeting with Xi is complicated, forcing White House officials to reconsider how Trump will approach the Chinese president, as reported by the New York Times.
The American newspaper explains that when the US president planned the trip to Beijing last October as the first in a series of carefully planned meetings, most US government officials did not have one in mind. And when it finally did, the idea was that it would be over quickly.
At the time the decision to go to war was made, Trump officials had said they hoped that forcing Iran into a nuclear deal after a relatively short bombing campaign would be a show of American strength. They also thought it would be seen as a warning to Beijing as Trump sought a tougher approach to the US’s biggest military, technological and economic rival.
But things have not developed according to the above theories.
The focus is on the economic impact and Hormuz
The visit was supposed to focus first on a trade deal and, secondly, on security issues including Taiwan, China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, growing Chinese cyber activity against the US and China’s nuclear program.
But in this case, many analysts believe that if Trump flies to China as planned, for an intensive two-day visit, the main issue will clearly be the economic impact of a war that China has made clear it considers unnecessary.
Moreover, both publicly and privately, Xi has repeatedly demanded that the US open the waterway through which China imports about a third of its oil and natural gas – a demand that Trump continues to reject, last Wednesday calling the blockade “genius”, and “100% foolproof”. At the same time, he continues to advance the “surrender” of the Iranians as the only solution.
For now, the White House has not addressed this clear difference between the two countries ahead of the upcoming trip.
However, there are not a few who believe that in the next two weeks, China’s role in the conflict may prove to be crucial.
Among Asian countries, it has by far the largest oil reserves, so shortages are not yet a problem. But with oil suddenly surging above $110 a barrel, the economic impact on the Chinese economy could be huge, possibly much higher than Trump’s tariffs, experts cited by the NYTimes estimate. At the same time, China is by far Iran’s biggest customer.
The scenarios of Chinese pressure on Iran
In this context, US government officials reportedly hope that Beijing will put pressure on the Iranians, forcing them to make concessions.
After all, Chinese officials played a critical behind-the-scenes role in getting Iran to accept its first two-week ceasefire this month after Trump threatened to wipe Iranian culture off the map. They asked their Iranian counterparts to show more flexibility in the Strait negotiations and warned that a ceasefire may be Tehran’s only chance to avert disaster, the Associated Press reported.
Now that , some officials and analysts say China may have a chance to help broker a deal — or at least open the Straits of Hormuz.
Of course, in addition to the commercial relationship between Beijing and Tehran, there is also limited military cooperation. US intelligence agencies estimate that China may have sent a missile shipment to Iran for war, although Trump said two weeks ago that he had contacted Xi to prevent further aid.
“I was a little surprised because I have a very good relationship and I thought I had an understanding with President Xi,” he told CNBC. “But it’s okay. This is how war is made.”
