When the ceasefire in the war with Iran went into effect a month ago, he was quite clear that if the Iranians failed to end their nuclear program or reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the bombers would be back in the air. “If there is no agreement, the fighting continues,” he said, making it clear that this was just a pause.
The “victory” proclaimed by the White House
But according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, it turns out the war actually ended sometime after the cease-fire began, he told reporters at a White House press conference on Tuesday. “, he said. “We achieved the goal of this operation.” The effort to open the Straits, Mr. Rubio said, is entirely a defense and humanitarian operation that would only lead to direct military conflict with the Iranians if American ships came under fire.
Later on Tuesday, Trump – which was only a day old and had managed to release only a few ships – “for a short time,” citing what he called “great progress” toward a deal with Iran. But this appeared to contradict the government’s stated position that it forced the opening of the Straits to establish that no nation has the right to block an international sea lane.
For the White House, these were the latest rhetorical leaps in an effort to put behind a war that has created the biggest political crisis of Trump’s presidency. But just declaring it doesn’t make it true The missiles continued to fly as the United States tried to “guide” ships out of the straits. Both sides insist they control traffic in the sea lane.
From nuclear to “regime change”
And despite Rubio’s declaration that the war aims have been achieved, they clearly have not. In the 38 days of intensive combat operations, the United States struck, according to the Pentagon’s tally, about 13,000 targets. But destroying targets wasn’t the only thing at stake.
Trump himself outlined his goals in the early hours of February 28, when he said he had five main goals: to ensure Iran never gets a nuclear weapon, destroy its ballistic missiles, sink its navy, end support for terrorist groups and create the conditions for the Iranian people to overthrow their government.
The Iranian Navy is apparently gone, as Trump often points out. But that’s all that’s checked off the list. So far, Iran’s nuclear stockpile has not been touched and there is no agreement to move it out of the country. American estimates suggest that more than half of the missiles and launchers survived. And Trump has abandoned talk of changing the country’s leadership, suggesting at one point that he never asked for it, or that the change already happened by replacing fallen officials, a version that most pundits call simply “reshuffling.”
Political pressures – The trip to Beijing
Nevertheless, Trump and Rubio have reason to declare that Epic Fury is over. Congress has grown increasingly uneasy about the War Powers Act, while Trump’s political base has been divided over whether the president has broken his promise to avoid protracted wars.
In addition, Trump delayed his trip to China to make sure the war was over, the US was victorious and the Straits were open before landing in Beijing. This trip is now scheduled for next Wednesday.
Trump’s language stunts
Trump’s language has also changed. He can’t seem to stop himself from describing the current situation as a war, even if it’s starting to recede.
“Our country is booming now despite the fact that we’re in a, I call it a mini-war,” he said Monday. In other speeches, he has interspersed the word “war” with other, milder descriptions: The attack on Iran was a “field trip,” or a “detour,” making it sound more like a weekend jaunt through the Middle East that met with little traffic.
While this all sounds like politically convenient puns any actual declaration that the battle is over represents a fundamental shift in strategy. For nine weeks, American military power was the lever of pressure in the negotiations.
Economic strangulation instead of military strikes
However, the bombing campaign did not change Iran’s fundamental positions. The Revolutionary Guards managed to seal off the Straits, sending markets into a frenzy while Trump issued threats on social media.
After the ceasefire, the situation remains tense: the Iranians have attacked US forces more than 10 times, but the attacks remain “below the threshold of the resumption of major combat operations”, as General Dan Cain said.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the new merchant ship guidance operation is an entirely separate and temporary defense effort.
“We are not looking for a fight,” he said, although he added that US warships and Apache helicopters have already sunk Iranian vessels. (Rubio, in fact, characteristically said that these vessels “are sitting at the bottom of the sea, along with the rest of Iran’s navy.”)
Now the government has shifted its focus from military strikes to an economic blockade, targeting Iran’s “fragile economy.”
Rubio argued that only the United States has the power to open the Strait of Hormuz “as a favor to the world.” “If we live in a world where a rogue state like this Iranian regime is allowed to claim control of an international shipping lane as the new normal,” he added, “it won’t be long before you see this happening in multiple shipping lanes around the world.”
