Despite mutual accusations made over the past few days, data analyzed by the ISW confirms that the intensity of the fighting has decreased, although it has never completely stopped.
The three-day ceasefire announced by Trump between Russia and Ukraine was far from constituting a total pause in the fighting. According to one analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, Russian and Ukrainian forces maintained limited offensive operations along the front line during the days of truce, also exchanging accusations of violations of the agreement.
“Zelensky stated that Russian forces carried out more than 150 ground attacks, 100 artillery attacks and almost 10,000 drone attacks between May 9 and 10,” the analysis details. On the other hand, the Russian Ministry of Defense accuses Kiev of “violating the ceasefire by carrying out eight ground attacks; 676 artillery, MLRS and mortar attacks; and 6,331 drone attacks”.
During the period of truce, Ukraine guarantees, however, that no large-scale Russian attacks, that is, with missiles, were recorded. However, according to the ISW, the Ukrainian Air Force shot down 27 drones of the Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas and Parodiya models between midnight and eight am on Sunday.
Despite the mutual accusations made over the last few days, the data analyzed by the Institute confirms that the intensity of the fighting has decreased, although it has never completely stopped.
“Data observed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Fire Information System for Resource Management (NASA FIRMS) for May 10 indicates that hostilities decreased further on that day, but that activity did not cease”, says the ISW.
The analysis of the think tank North American also highlights that the continuation of localized clashes shows the weaknesses of a ceasefire without clear inspection mechanisms, credible monitoring or defined processes to resolve disputes between the parties.
“The prevalence of mutual accusations and continued localized activity throughout the second day of the ceasefire highlight the fact that ceasefires without explicit enforcement mechanisms, reliable monitoring and defined dispute resolution processes have little chance of lasting,” the report says.
On Saturday, on the first of three days of ceasefire and the date on which Russia celebrated Victory Day, Vladimir Putin vaguely suggested that the war with Ukraine may be “approaching its end”, without indicating any concrete intention to end the conflict. The Russian president also once again justified the invasion of Ukraine by saying he wanted Russian forces to focus on the “final defeat” of Kiev. The Russian leader also reiterated that any bilateral meeting with Zelensky should take place in Moscow.
