North American leader aims for beneficial agreements for the US in areas where it competes with Brazil in the Chinese market
The meeting between the president of the United States, (Republican Party), and the president of China, (Communist Party of China), in Beijing this Wednesday (May 13, 2026), should reverberate around the world, both in the geopolitical positions that the countries will call into question and in the rearrangement of trade flows.
Although Brazil is not directly involved in the main geopolitical issues that must be put on the table – Taiwan and the war in Iran –, the country could lose out if Trump manages to achieve the trade agreements he has in mind. The head of the White House wants to open up more of the Chinese economy to US companies, and this could affect Brazil, as the US is a direct competitor in the Chinese market.
One of the proposals that Trump intends to present to Xi is the resumption of US oil and gas exports to China. According to data from , the Asian country has not imported crude oil from the USA since June 2025. It is a response to the tariff war that began in March last year. The impact was a 5-fold loss in revenue from the sale of the commodity to China in 2025, compared to 2024.
On the other hand, Brazil remains one of China’s main partners in the oil sector. Since 2024, Brazilian exports have been higher than North American exports in every month, but there was an increase in Brazilian revenues after China closed this channel to the USA.
It is unlikely that Trump will be successful in negotiating a resumption of the purchase of North American oil in large volumes, even though China is one of the countries most impacted by the oil that stops arriving due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.
China does not directly interfere in the confrontation, but has supported the Iranian government on international stages. Buying US oil would be like financing operations in the Middle East, and that possibility is distant.
If it manages to unlock this market, Brazil will still have a wide advantage over the North Americans. The country would only lose ground in the long term if Trump’s conviction is extraordinary.
Soy duel
Brazil has a lot of advantage over the US in oil trade with China, but the same cannot be said in the agricultural sector. The dispute is more fierce, with Brazilian soybeans having surpassed North American soybeans in large volumes in the last 2 years. However, the USA turned the score around in March this year, which had not happened since February 2025.
As with oil, China punished the US by suspending imports due to last year’s trade tensions. Brazil benefited, breaking record revenues from soybeans in 2025 (US$36.9 billion).
The last time Trump and Xi met, in October 2025 in South Korea, one of Trump’s most celebrated achievements was the resumption of soybean sales to China. According to the General Administration of Customs, North American soybeans landed on Chinese soil again in January this year.
Now Trump wants more and is seeking to forge an agreement that will benefit American producers even more – a strong Republican electoral base. Knowing that Trump needs to please rural producers, Xi may have more goodwill with North American soybeans to also extract goodwill from North Americans.
RARE EARTHS
In the mineral sector, the situation is different. In the North American delegation to Beijing are executives from the largest US technology companies. This gives a clear tone that the White House wants a firmer and more lasting agreement with China to guarantee a robust supply of rare earths – materials used to manufacture chips and magnets essential for the cutting-edge technology sector.
In addition to the world’s largest rare earth reserves, China concentrates 90% of the world’s refining. This scenario puts the Chinese at a clear advantage over the Americans. If an agreement does not come out in the form desired by the USA, Brazil is the one who can benefit.
Owner of the 2nd largest rare earth reserves on the planet, Brazil would become the most viable option to supply North American industries. If you know how to take advantage of a moment when the USA is against the wall, it is possible to negotiate a more beneficial agreement that allows the country to qualify its refining park with North American technological support.
