The president () and the senator (-RJ) remain technically tied in a second round scenario for president tested by a new Genial/Quaest survey released this Wednesday (13).
The PT member appears ahead in the simulation of the first stage, with 39%, while the son of the former president (PL) has 33%. Blanks, nulls and declarations that they will not vote total 10%. Undecided are 5%.
In a direct confrontation between the two, Lula now appears numerically ahead, with 42% of voting intentions, against 41% for Flávio. Whites, nulls and those who say they won’t vote are 14%, and undecided, 3%. In April, Jair Bolsonaro’s son registered 42% of voting intentions, and Lula, 40%.
Quaest carried out 2,004 in-person home interviews from May 8th to 11th with voters aged 16 and over. The confidence level is 95%, and the maximum expected margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points. The research is registered with the (Superior Electoral Court) under code BR-03598/2026.
The research also tested Aldo Rebelo (DC), (), (Mobiliza), Hertz Dias (PSTU), (Missão), (), () and (UP) as first round options.
Everyone appears right behind Lula and Flávio. Caiado and Zema each have 4%, and Renan has 2%. Augusto Cury, Cabo Daciolo and Samara Martins score 1% each. Aldo Rebelo and Hertz Dias do not score.
The survey also placed Renan, Zema and Caiado in alternative second round scenarios against Lula. The PT member has an advantage against everyone.
In a dispute with the former governor of Minas Gerais, Lula has 44%, compared to 37% for Zema. Against Caiado, the current president appears with 44%, while the former governor of Goiás scores 35%. The PT member registers 45% of intentions against Renan, which totals 28%.
Government assessment
The negative assessment of the Lula government varied from 42% in April to 39% in May, while the portion of voters who consider the PT’s work to be positive fluctuated from 31% to 34% in the period. The regular rate was 26% to 25%.
As a result, the difference between those who rate the government as bad/terrible and excellent/good fell from 11 to 5 percentage points.
Rejection
Lula and Flávio maintain the lead in terms of rejection. According to the survey, 53% say they know and would not vote for the PT member. For the son of the former president, the percentage is 54%.
Zema has a 27% rejection rate. Whitewashed, 32%. Aldo Rebelo and Renan Santos score 21% and 19%, respectively. Augusto Cury appears with 16%, while Cabo Daciolo has 27%. Samara Martins, 10%, and Hertz Dias, 7%.
