Every presidential election has a warm-up phase, in which candidates prepare for the campaign. The revelation of () with the owner of and the decision of (PT) to take out an arsenal to avoid defeat in the dispute indicate that this stage ended last week.
The report, released this Saturday (16), captured the moment when the two main pre-candidates for the Palácio do Planalto begin to face the first real tests of this election.
The numbers show preliminary signs that voting intentions for Flávio Bolsonaro stopped rising, after , with a massive transfer of votes from his father.
In this situation, after the positive wave of the launch of his pre-candidacy, Jair Bolsonaro’s son will have to face the tidal wave of negative repercussions for what he did to .
Datafolha took the last photograph before the affectionate conversations between the senator and the banker had an effect on voters’ preferences. The research, which carried out most of its interviews before the news was released, highlights some of the weapons that Flávio has at his disposal to try to convince them not to give up.
In addition to having absorbed a good part of his father’s votes, the senator reached this point in the dispute with a relevant index: a high rejection rate, but apparently controlled and slightly below Lula’s negative numbers. In one month, the percentage of voters who say they would not vote for Flávio at all fluctuated from 46% to 43%, while the PT member appears at 47%.
The direct involvement of the Bolsonaro name in the scandal that became bar talk during the campaign year will test the resistance of these numbers. The developments of the case on this index matter because the rejection will be decisive in a dispute that has everything to be decided in a second round with the two protagonists of the great political polarization of this decade.
In this regard, tolerance to news involving Flávio will also depend on Lula. The president will enter the campaign with the challenge of reducing his own rejection and preventing anti-PTism from being an anesthetic strong enough for some voters to pretend they didn’t see the senator’s connections with Vorcaro.
Lula gave every indication that he will use the strength of his position to try to regain the goodwill of the voters who elected him in 2022.
In recent days, the president announced three measures to try to cover some of the vulnerable flanks of his popularity: he presented a , and signed .
The three initiatives were an early example of the strength that a candidate for reelection usually has in their hands. Given the tough fight that Lula must face in the campaign, with an opposition candidate hot on his heels in the second round, it is certain that other weapons must be drawn in the coming months.
The Datafolha numbers indicate that the PT member may have difficulties in two main groups of the electorate. The first of them is what can be classified as a volatile voter: 9% of those who say they voted for Lula in 2022 say they don’t want a repeat. Regaining part of these votes would be crucial for the president’s re-election.
Another peculiar situation occurs precisely in Lula’s most traditional base, in low-income voters and in the Northeast. Lula maintains good voting intention rates in both segments (51% and 60%, respectively, in the first round), but a good portion of this public no longer classifies the government as excellent or good — which indicates a greater risk of loss of enthusiasm and non-attendance at the polls.
The survey data and the events of the last week are timely reminders that training is training, and a game is a game.
