The rise in the US currency is related to the Brazilian political-electoral scenario
In three days, the dollar rose from R$4.89 to R$5.06, an increase of 17 cents (3.47%). This time, the increase has nothing to do with the worsening fiscal situation, Trump’s protective tariffs or the increase in geopolitical risk in the Middle East. THE The surge in the US currency is related to the Brazilian political-electoral scenariospecifically with Flávio Bolsonaro.
The day before yesterday, the website Intercept released an audio from Flávio Bolsonaro to Daniel Vorcaro asking for money to produce the film about his father, Dark Horse. Today, the The same portal leaked that Eduardo Bolsonaro was the executive producer of the filmwith access to the financial resources of the cinematographic work.
In light of the facts disclosed, despite there being no corruption in these transactions, the financial market understood that Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy lost strength to defeat Lula. THE reading is that the request for money, the day before Vorcaro was arrested, went down badly, especially with the center, less ideological electorate — precisely the one that Flávio had been trying to conquer.
With the greater probability of Lula’s victory, the market understands that fiscal reforms will be compromised if this government continues. With Flávio Bolsonaro, the investor would understand that the adjustment in public accounts would have a greater chance of occurringwhich partly explained the recent fall in the US currency.
The behavior of the dollar from now on will be dictated, above all, by the new information to be released about the relationship between Flávio Bolsonaro and Vorcaro. To the electoral polls in the coming weeks should stir the political environment and also with the price of assets in the financial market. For those who like volatility, it will be a full meal.
*This text does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Jovem Pan.
