TAIPEI, Taiwan — President Donald Trump has described a potential multibillion-dollar arms sale to Taiwan as a “bargaining chip” with China, raising new questions about the pace and scale of U.S. military support for the democratic island.
Taiwan’s government has been waiting for months for Trump to approve a $14 billion package of missiles, anti-drone equipment and air defense systems designed to strengthen the island against military threats from Beijing.
Trump had pressured Taiwan to spend more on its own defense. Now, he is using precisely the weapons that his government insisted the island buy as leverage in negotiations with China, the US’s main adversary.
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Trump told reporters on Air Force One after leaving China on Friday that he had discussed the weapons package with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their summit the previous week in Beijing. He was asked in a Fox News interview whether he would approve of the Taiwan deal.
“No, I’m keeping that on hold, and that’s up to China,” he said in the interview, which was recorded in Beijing but aired after his departure. “It depends.
“It’s, frankly, a very good trading currency for us,” he said. “There are a lot of weapons.”
He didn’t go into detail about what he wanted in return, but Trump has been pushing China to make large purchases of American planes, ethanol, soybeans, beef and sorghum.
His comments appear to undermine assurances given to Taiwan by some in his own administration that U.S. support for the island is firm and non-negotiable. Before the summit, a bipartisan group of senators had called for support for Taiwan not to become a bargaining chip with China.
“It looks increasingly likely that Trump will indefinitely withhold the $14 billion weapons package for Taiwan in the hopes that Beijing will give him what he wants on the economic front,” said Amanda Hsiao, China director at Eurasia Group, a consultancy.
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Increasing pressure on China
By saying that his approval of the arms deal “depends on China,” Trump appeared to suggest that the ball is now in Beijing’s court. There was no immediate comment from Beijing on Trump’s remarks.
On the first day of talks in Beijing, Xi told Trump that the “Taiwan issue is the most critical issue in China-US relations.” If the matter were mishandled, Xi warned, it could put “the entire China-U.S. relationship in an extremely dangerous situation.”
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Trump also seemed keen to show that he had listened carefully to Xi’s views, saying in the interview that after a long conversation with the Chinese leader, “I think now I know more about Taiwan than I know about almost any country.”
But he also later raised the possibility of calling Taiwan’s president, a move sure to infuriate Beijing.
“I have to talk to the person who right now is — you know who it is — who is governing Taiwan,” he said, in a possible reference to Taiwanese President Lai Ching‑te.
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If Trump does so, he would be the first sitting American president known to have spoken to a Taiwanese leader since at least 1979, when the United States severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan as part of its recognition of the People’s Republic of China. China strongly opposes any contact between high-ranking American and Taiwanese officials.
Trump’s move could backfire, either by angering Beijing if he approves the arms sale, or by possibly leading American lawmakers to increase pressure on him to reinforce support for Taiwan.
If Xi wants to punish the Trump administration over Taiwan, analysts say China could withhold orders for agricultural products or tighten restrictions on exports of rare earths, which are essential for many technological components. But Xi has also agreed to a state visit to the United States this year and could use the prospect of more talks — and more deals — to influence Trump.
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A blow to the Taiwanese president’s agenda
Trump’s statements are likely to be seen as a setback for Lai, who had been strongly advocating for more military spending and the purchase of American weapons.
When the Taiwanese Parliament finally approved $25 billion in special funds to pay for two U.S. weapons packages, lawmakers from Lai’s own party abstained from the vote because the plan did not include spending on locally produced drones and other weapons.
Taiwan’s government quickly tried to defuse any tension, saying it had been assured several times by American officials that U.S. policy remained unchanged.
“Our country is grateful for President Trump’s continued support for security in the Taiwan Strait since his first term,” Lai’s office said in a statement regarding Trump’s latest statements. Countries close to China “were cooperating with the United States to actively strengthen their defenses; Taiwan cannot and will not be an exception.”
Trump’s remarks will also “provide cheap ammunition” for Lai’s critics in Taiwan, who say he is too subordinate to Washington, said William Yang, senior Taiwan analyst for the International Crisis Group, which monitors and tries to help resolve conflicts.
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Some politicians from Taiwan’s main opposition Nationalist Party, which advocates closer ties with China, quickly said Trump’s statements showed Lai had been naive.
Under Lai, Taiwan has sought to build a more agile and mobile military, with missile and air defense technology capable of countering China’s growing military power, largely by purchasing weapons from the United States. Trump had already approved an 11 billion dollar package last year, a measure to which Beijing responded with military exercises near the island.
Regarding the 14 billion dollar package, Trump limited himself to saying that he would make “a decision over a relatively short period of time”.
In the Fox interview, Trump also returned to his old accusation that Taiwan acquired its cutting-edge knowledge in semiconductor production through dishonest means and is therefore indebted to the United States. He also emphasized the island’s vulnerability to an attack from China, with the United States many thousands of miles away.
“They stole our chip industry,” Trump said of Taiwan. “Taiwan would do very well to lower the ball a little. China would do very well to lower the ball a little.”
Does Trump believe in Beijing?
Perhaps more worrying for the Taiwanese government is the fact that Trump’s account of his talks with Xi suggests that he has embraced the Chinese argument that Taiwan is largely to blame for the tensions. China has portrayed Lai and his aides as dangerous separatists trying to drag the United States into a devastating war.
“Well, it’s a risky thing when you go for independence, you know,” he said. “They are heading towards independence because they want to go to war, and they want to, they think they have the United States behind them.
“I would like to see things remain as they are,” he said, apparently referring to Taiwan’s so-called status quo, in which the island is, in practice, separate but does not seek formal independence.
Taiwan, which claims China is the aggressor, has never been governed by the Chinese Communist Party. Most Taiwanese see themselves and their island democracy as distinct from China, and have no desire to be placed under Beijing’s rule. Lai and his party reject Beijing’s claims on Taiwan and say the island is already, in practice, independent.
Trump’s statements “suggest that Xi’s presentation on Taiwan, which almost certainly framed Taiwan as the source of cross-strait tensions and a supposedly nonexistent Taiwanese push for independence as the main risk to be managed, had an effect on Trump,” said David Sacks, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who studies China.
Without criticizing Trump, Lai’s office said in a statement that “China’s escalating military threat is the only destabilizing factor in the Indo-Pacific region, including the Taiwan Strait.”
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