Conflict in the Middle East and inflation expectations guided the session this Monday (May 18)
The dollar fell 1.37%, this Monday (May 18, 2026), and ended up trading at R$4.998. The currency reached a maximum of R$5,056 and a minimum of R$4,996 during the session.
Ibovespa – the main index – fell 0.17%, to 176,975.82 points.
The real showed a partial recovery compared to the accumulated increase of 3.5% in the week of May 11th to 15th, when it closed at R$5.07. The dollar rose after the Intercept to state that the pre-candidate for the Presidency, (PL-RJ), negotiated with the founder of Banco Master, Daniel Vorcaro, the transfer of R$ 134 million to finance a film about the former president (PL).
Worse expectations for inflation put pressure on the Ibovespa and made investors more pessimistic about the Selic easing cycle. The interest rate remains at a high level (14.50% per year) after the BC (Central Bank) made 2 cuts of 0.25 pp (percentage point).
The Focus Bulletin showed that market agents set the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) at 4.92% at the end of 2026, and no longer 4.91%.
The Ministry of Finance announced the official inflation forecast for 2026, reaching the target ceiling of 4.5%, and also raised the estimate for 2027 to 3.5%.
CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Oil opened the week above US$ 110. The Brent barrel rose 2.6%, to US$ 112.10, the highest value in 2 weeks. In the post-market, at 5:40 pm, the commodity fell 0.66% and stood at US$108.49.
The president of the United States, (Republican Party), threatened Iran again on Sunday (May 17). The countries continue without new signals about a possible peace agreement.
Tehran announced the creation of a new body to manage the Strait of Hormuz, where it intends to charge tolls for the passage of ships.
