In the first poll after the outbreak of the “” case in the campaign, the president (PT) increased his advantage over the senator from Rio in the first round simulation from 3 to 9 points, scoring 40% compared to his rival’s 31%.
A week ago, within the survey’s margin of error of two percentage points: 38% to 35%. In the second round scenario, equality at 45% has now turned into an advantage of 47% to 43% for the PT member.
Last week, the institute had released a survey whose majority of interviews had been carried out before the one with the former banker, under the justification of financing a film about the life of his father, the former president convicted of a coup attempt.
Now, Datafolha returned to the streets from Wednesday (20) to Thursday (21) with the episode already widely known: 64% of the 2,004 interviewed in 139 cities said they had heard about the case, with an equal percentage of those who thought the senator acted badly.
In today’s most likely first round scenario, Lula and Flávio remain isolated ahead. The former governors (-GO, 4%) and (Novo-MG, 3%) are tied with Renan Santos (Missão) and Samara Martins (UP), both with 3%.
Technically on the same level are Augusto Cury (Avante, 2%), Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO, 1%), Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza, 1%) and Aldo Rebelo (DC, 1%), who is now talking about nominating former Supreme Minister Joaquim Barbosa. The movement occurred after the survey was registered, under code BR-07489/2026 at the TSE (Superior Electoral Court).
Lula continues to have an advantage in a hypothetical second round against his other rivals. From last week to now, it went from 46% to 48% in the clash with Caiado, which was 39%. Against Zema, there was the same variation, while Minas Gerais fluctuated from 40% to 39%.
to replace Flávio in case of withdrawal, the former first lady (PL) has a performance similar to that of the senator in a hypothetical second round against Lula. In this, she would have 43%, while the president would score 48%.
In the first round simulation, she does worse than Flávio, scoring 22% while Lula has 41%, still isolated from the bottom group, led by Zema with 6%. Today, Michelle’s candidacy is seen as distant. The former president and the PL want her to run for the Senate in the Federal District.
The result represents the first blow to the senator’s campaign since his name was announced at the end of the year. for the Lula government and without direct challenges, Flávio was isolated in second place in the first round.
In April, he numerically surpassed the PT member for the first time in the second round scenario. In last week’s measurement, the rise had been stopped and both were tied at 45%.
Flávio’s political situation is delicate. Since the case emerged, he has been caught changing versions several times.
Initially, only to later admit that he had asked for the money supposedly for the production of “Dark Horse” (underdog, in English), about Bolsonaro’s victorious 2018 campaign.
He later admitted that something more, “a video”, could appear, but maintained that he had not had personal contact with the former banker. Connections between those around the film and his brother, the impeached deputy Eduardo (PL-SP), appeared. On Tuesday (19), he met with Vorcaro after he was released from prison.
The former banker, who saw Master liquidated last year, estimated at tens of billions of reais from the issuance of bad bonds and overvaluation of assets, involving governments in the process and an attempt to buy the bank by the state-owned BRB.
His connections with the political and business world are the focus of investigations by the Federal Police, and have already affected other figures linked to Flávio, Ciro Nogueira. Under suspicion from allies, the senator says he will continue in the dispute.
According to Datafolha, Flávio continues to have an advantage over his opponents in the dispute and continues to be the main anti-Lula figure in the October election. In the spontaneous survey, when the voter does not see the list of options, he remained stable with 17% voting intention — the president has 28%. Michelle is not mentioned.
The rejection of the two leaders continues to set the tone in the matter: 46% would not vote for Flávio at all, compared to 45% who also rule out supporting Lula. Michelle comes next, with 31% rejection.
In favor of the former first lady is the fact that she is a little less known than her stepson. 13% don’t know who she is, compared to 7% who say the same about the senator. At this point they have a favorable “mix”: Caiado is unknown by 52% and has a 15% rejection rate, while Zema scores 53% and 18%, respectively.
From the point of view of the electorate profile, there are no significant changes. Lula has his greatest support among women, the poorest, least educated, Northeasterners and Catholics. Flávio records an above-average performance among men, evangelicals, residents of the South and North/Central-West and in the middle class and wealthier segments.
