Sector expects record harvest for this year; the current record belongs to the year 2020
With it in supermarkets, consumption of the drink grew again in Brazil. In the first 4 months of this year, an increase of 2.44% in coffee consumption was recorded compared to the same period last year, reaching 4.9 million 60-kilo bags.
According to the (Brazilian Coffee Industry Association), the recovery in consumption began mainly in March, when growth reached 10.25% compared to March 2025. In April, consumption continued to rise, but at a slightly slower pace, around 3.66%.
“The year 2025 was quite resilient for coffee farming in general and culminated in a drop in consumption. We started the year 2026 still not fully recovering, but in March we started to show greater growth”explained the executive director of Abic, Celírio Inácio.
In 2025, due to rising prices, 2.31% between November 2024 and October 2025 compared to the previous period.
After a price peak between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, the year 2026 began with a greater supply of raw materials, which caused product prices to fall.
In the case of traditional coffee, the drop was 15.51% in April this year compared to the same month last year, with a kilo costing around R$55.34.
Of the 8 categories that are monitored by Abic, only 3 recorded an increase in consumer prices:
- Specialty coffees (16.9%),
- Decaffeinated (21%),
- Instant coffee (0.55%).
For this year, the sector expects a record coffee harvest in Brazil, said the president of Abic, Pavel Cardoso. If the forecast is confirmed, there could be a further drop in consumer prices.
“In 2026 we will have a larger harvest than in 2025, with potential chances of being larger than in 2020, when we had a record harvest. If this harvest expectation is maintained, we tend to have a more regular behavior of these plantations and, with this, the industry must naturally transfer this [essa queda nos preços] for retail”he explained to journalists.
With this possibility of a good harvest and a drop in prices, Cardoso believes that the consequence should be a new increase in consumption of the product.
“By regulating this behavior and reducing volatility, the understanding is that we will have a behavior of greater recovery in this consumption throughout the year.”
Harvest
On Thursday morning (May 21, 2026), Conab (National Supply Company) announced that coffee production is expected to grow 18% in this year’s harvest compared to the volume harvested last season, reaching 66.7 million bags.
If this is confirmed, this will be the highest production ever recorded in Conab’s historical series, exceeding the harvest recorded in 2020 by 5.74%.
This text was originally published by , on May 21, 2026. The content is free for republication, citing the source, and was adapted to the standard of Poder360.
