THE Gerald Knaussco-founder of the European Stability Initiative (ESI) institute, strongly believes in the power of . He is the architect of the European Union – 2016 Agreement on . In recent months he has been traveling to European capitals and is dealing with, among other things, how the Western Balkans can develop a meaningful relationship with the EU.
There is much debate about the form of Ukraine’s association with the EU. What is the real situation?
“Since 2004, with the Orange Revolution, and then in 2014 with the Maidan Revolution, during which 100 people were killed, Ukraine has been trying to join the EU. Finally, in June 2022, the European Council granted it the status of a candidate country, while Kiev was under Russian siege. Four years later, the Ukrainians have not opened a single “accession chapter” and fear that it will happen like the other countries that have been waiting at the door for years. Zelensky now says, with great insistence, to the Europeans: “Give us something serious now.
We are fighting for Europe, we have the most effective democratic army with experience in modern warfare, but we need serious answers to our question: when will we join the EU?” The answer to this question has revealed the problems in the politics of the Union. Recently, there have been two proposals, one French and one German, which were exactly what Zelensky rejects: a symbolic membership, essentially no membership. But also what Zelensky is asking for, namely full membership with certain derogations or exemptions until 2027 or 2028 at the latest, is also not feasible.’
Is there a serious alternative proposal for the EU-Ukraine relationship?
“The EU could offer Ukraine the opportunity to join the European single market within the next two to three years, provided it implements the necessary reforms. In doing so, it would acquire the four freedoms – of capital, persons, goods and services – of the Treaty of Rome, the founding document of the first European Economic Community. This is something that has happened in the past, we know how it works and it is in everyone’s best interest. The EU has offered this status to eight countries in the past.
In Austria, Finland and Sweden, which joined the Single Market in 1994 and became full members of the EU a year later. Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway chose to remain members of the Single Market. Andorra and San Marino followed. In a sense, it is as if people and businesses are inside the EU without the country participating in its institutions. In addition, the agricultural sector is excluded, which politically facilitates the process with France and Poland. The main advantage of this proposal is that it brings Ukraine closer to the EU without detours.
Full integration remains the goal. The idea is supported by several prominent European politicians. We have been supporting it for years and it should have been proposed in the Western Balkan countries and Moldova as well. At present, none of the Balkan countries, perhaps with the exception of Montenegro, is likely to join before 2030. However, they could join the Single Market if they carry out the necessary reforms.”
If joining the European single market is such a good idea, why hasn’t it been implemented for so many years?
“Balkan elites have long misinterpreted it as merely symbolic, a distraction from the goal of full integration. This is changing. A few weeks ago, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic wrote in an opinion piece in a German newspaper: “Give us the chance to join the single market as a first step.” And Ukraine could see this proposal positively, as something tangible and substantial, if it is seriously proposed and supported by a group of European countries.”
What would be the benefits of a major expansion of the single economic market?
“We are expanding our market and the scope of our rules, strengthening Ukraine and contributing to the stabilization of the Balkans. This will help Ukraine carry out much-needed reforms and build a strong post-war economy, also necessary to fund its military in the future – it will need a strong military in the future, as Russia will likely remain a threat even after the war is over. It will also send a very strong message from European democracies that Europe is not only not in decline, as Trump’s supporters claim, but remains strong and attractive. In my opinion, Greece, together with countries like Italy and Austria, should support this idea for the stabilization of the Western Balkans, Ukraine and Moldova.”
You are the architect of the EU-Turkey migration agreement, which you proposed in 2015 and was adopted in March 2016. Ten years later, how do you assess it?
“Thanks to this agreement, within a few weeks in 2016 the number of people crossing the border from Turkey to Greece dropped to 3%. It operated for four years and then collapsed when EU-Turkey relations deteriorated. But we have seen in practice that it can work quickly.
Something similar can be done today on a larger scale. This summer, when the new European Pact on Migration and Asylum comes into force, we will have a new tool that we did not have in Union Law 10 years ago: European countries will be able to make a similar agreement with any safe third country in the world, not just neighbours.
Greece could conclude such an agreement with Rwanda, with which the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has been cooperating since 2019. If refugees and migrants know they will be sent to Rwanda, and if Rwanda meets the conditions to be considered safe, and UNHCR applies asylum procedures there, illegal crossings from Libya could to stop within a few weeks. And we would save thousands of lives.”
Gerald Knaus, co-founder of the European Stability Initiative (ESI)
