Research released this Thursday (28) presents a change of scenario, as the one released on the 5th showed Bolsonaro’s son numerically ahead
O President Lula (PT) appears ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) in a possible second round of the presidential election, according to the Meio/Ideia survey released this Thursday (28). The PT member has 46,5% of voting intentionscontra 41,4% of the firstborn of Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
Considering the margin of error limit, which is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, Lula’s advantage can vary from just 0.1 percentage points (44% to 43.9%) to 10.1 percentage points (49% to 38.9%).
The result represents a change of scene. The previous round of the survey, released on May 5, indicated a technical tie: Flávio had 45.3% of voting intentions against 44.7% for Lula.
In less than a month, the PL pre-candidate lost 3.9 percentage points amid the strain caused by financing a film about Bolsonaro.
Lula also appears ahead of the other pre-candidates. In a possible second round against Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), o PT member has 46% against 40% for the former governor of Goiás. Blanks and nulls represent 7%, the same percentage of undecided people. In other scenarios, Lula would have 46% to 37% against Romeu Zema (Novo); 46% to 31% against Renan Santos (Mission); and 46% to 26% against former STF minister Joaquim Barbosa (DC).
First round
The research also tested first-round scenarios. However, the results are not comparable with previous rounds because federal deputy Aécio Neves (PSDB) and Joaquim Barbosa were included in the list of pre-candidates.
Therefore, it is not possible to draw conclusions about the variation in the performance of Flávio Bolsonaro or any other name tested.
Lula takes advantage with 38.5% of voting intentions against 31.5% for Flávio. Caiado has 5.5%followed by Earth com 2.4% e Renan Santos with 2.1%.
Undecided are 10.5% and those who said they voted blank, null or for no one, 5.1%. The other candidates combined have 4.4%. The institute did not disclose their individual performance. In addition to Aécio and Joaquim Barbosa, the list includes Augusto Cury (Avante), Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza), Edmilson Costa (PCB), Hert Diaz (PSTU), Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) and Samara Martins (UP).
The research also simulated the replacement of Flávio by other names on the right. THE former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), scored 29.6% against Lula’s 38%. I and Senator Tereza Cristina (PP-MS) registered 15.9% against 38.1% for the current president.
The Meio/Ideia survey interviewed 1,500 voters aged 16 or over by telephone between the 23rd and 27th of May. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points and the confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the TSE under protocol BR-02918/2026.
