A new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office warns that the global average will reach record levels over the next five years, bringing more frequent and extreme temperatures, with the Arctic region warming at a significantly faster rate than the rest of the planet.
The annual report, which provides regional forecasts of temperatures and rainfall, predicts that global annual average near-surface temperatures will range between 1.3 °C and 1.9 °C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).
“There is very clear evidence that the climate is warming and that the global average temperature is continuing to rise,” Melissa Seabrook, a researcher at the UK’s National Weather Service, told Reuters.
With the Paris Agreement in 2015, governments pledged to try to prevent a rise of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a level where extreme climate events appear to be increasing in intensity.
The record for the warmest year of 2024 was broken
The report says it is very likely that global average near-surface air temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
It also predicts that there will be one year between 2026 and 2030 when average global temperatures surpass the hottest year on record in 2024, when they exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times for the first time.
The temporary exceedance of the 1.5 degree Celsius limit does not mean the Paris Agreement has failed, as it refers to a long-term average of more than 20 years, not a single-year exceedance, Seabrook said, noting that as the world approaches that limit, it is increasingly likely to exceed it more often.
“The science is very clear that the window to keep the average global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius is closing fast,” Seabrook added.
More intense weather phenomena
Arctic winter temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere over the next five years are projected to increase by more than 3.5 times the global average, reaching about 2.8 °C above the 1991-2020 reference level, according to the report.
Arctic sea ice is expected to melt in March over the next five years in the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk.
A warming Arctic could also disrupt weather systems and cause more extreme weather events, especially in the northern parts of the planet, Seabrook explains.
Wetter weather is also forecast in the Northern Hemisphere over the next five winters, as well as wet spells in northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia and the Sahel between May and September, while dry weather is forecast for this season in the Amazon.
A strong El Nino effect is also predicted for this winter, which could continue until 2027, driving global temperatures to possible record highs due to a warming Pacific Ocean, according to Seabrook.
El Niño is a periodic increase in sea surface temperature in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that typically lasts nine to twelve months.
“Rare heat wave”
Meteorologist Thodoris Kolidas talks about one for the month of May in his post.
As he points out, the heat episode in Northwest Europe is one of the most characteristic examples of how atmospheric circulation and a warmer background climate can work together to lead to historical records. The strong anticyclonic ridge at 500 hPa, warm convection at 850 hPa from North Africa and prolonged sunshine created a heat accumulation mechanism over W and NW Europe.
For Greece, he explains, the picture is milder and different. Our country does not seem to be in the center of a similar thermal dome. It is more on the periphery of the warm zone and is expected to gradually move into a warmer period, especially after the beginning of June.
Four Italian cities were put on red alert
Italy’s health ministry today put the country’s major cities of Rome, Florence, Bologna and Turin on red alert, or the highest level of danger 3, because of the heat wave that is hitting Europe this week.
Temperatures, unusually high for late May, are expected to reach up to 33°C in Turin, an Alpine city in northern Italy, 32°C in Florence and Bologna (but feels like 35°C) and 31°C in Rome (feels like 33°C), in south-central Italy.
Level 3 indicates an “emergency (heat) situation that is likely to have a negative impact on the health of active people without an underlying disease, and not just high-risk groups such as the elderly, very young children and people with chronic illnesses,” the health ministry explained.
This highest alert level is activated when high temperatures and unusual weather conditions persist for three or more consecutive days.
Since May 25, the Italian Ministry of Health has published a daily heat bulletin assessing the situation in 27 Italian cities, with 24-hour, 48-hour and 72-hour forecasts.
An unprecedented early heatwave has been hitting countries in Europe – including France, the UK and Italy – since the start of the week. This is a consequence of a ‘heat dome’, a high pressure zone that traps warm air from North Africa across Western Europe.
According to the prevailing scientific view, climate change caused by human activity is intensifying extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts and floods.
Heat wave costs Germany up to $131 billion by 2030
Germany is facing a huge economic blow due to the climate crisis. According to new analysis by Allianz Trade released today, extreme heat waves could cost the country up to $131 billion between 2026 and 2030 if the high temperature patterns recorded over the past decade repeat. This development threatens to shrink domestic economic output by up to 3% of GDP by 2030, placing Germany on the European average but clearly on the losing side of climate change.
Rising temperatures are no longer just an environmental problem, but an immediate threat to business and investment as it plummets productivity and skyrockets energy costs. According to data from Hamburg-based Allianz Trade, worker productivity falls by around 3% for every degree Celsius above the 30°C threshold. At the same time, the needs for cooling lead to an increase in energy costs of about 1.2% per additional degree of temperature.
This phenomenon also causes strong tremors in the public finances of the country. The prolonged heat is undermining the fiscal balance, reducing tax revenues by 0.7% annually and weighing on the German fiscal balance by around 0.9% of GDP each year.
Although southern Europe remains the hardest-hit region on the old continent, the analysis highlights that other, traditionally warmer regions outside Europe have shown much greater reflexes and adaptability to extreme heat. In this light, Allianz Trade concludes that the ability of economies to adapt to the new climate data is no longer an optional policy, but one of the most decisive factors for their global competitiveness in the coming years.
Dead in France, Britain, Ireland
It has killed at least 14 people in Great Britain, Ireland and France, with most deaths due to drowning.
Specifically, in England and Ireland seven deaths were recorded, among them many teenagers aged 12 to 15 and a 60-year-old man, who lost their lives in rivers, lakes and seas trying to cool off or help their relatives who were in danger.
At the same time, , where temperatures exceeded 34°C, with five people dying of drowning and two of heat stroke, while an additional ten citizens are hospitalized in critical condition with authorities remaining concerned for the coming days.
“Bell” UN
The heat wave that has hit parts of Europe in recent days represents a “harsh reminder” of the devastating consequences of climate change, the UN climate chief said, stressing the urgent need to accelerate the transition to clean forms of energy.
“This latest heat wave in Europe is a stark reminder of the spiraling consequences of the climate crisis, both human and economic. The main culprit is the planet’s dependence on burning coal, oil and natural gas, as well as deforestation,” Simon Steele told AFP.
“Many other regions of the world are also severely affected, such as India and other parts of Asia. The science is clear: human-induced climate change is making these heat waves more frequent and more extreme,” he added.
