Rodrigo Antunes / Lusa
Portugal heads into the 2026 World Cup as one of the strongest teams outside the main group of favorites and a mathematical projection by a German — who won the 2014, 2018 and 2022 titles — puts the corners on the final.
In betting houses, the Portuguese team appears as the sixth candidate to win the 2026 World Cup, just behind Spain, France, England, Brazil and Argentina.
Still, Portugal is seen as one of the most dangerous teams, benefiting from three main factors: the value of the squad (more valuable than that of Argentina and Brazil), the recent history of results and the international experience of the players called up by Roberto Martínez.
The market value of the 26 Portuguese places Portugal in fifth place among the most valuable teams, with an evaluation of 965 million eurosaccording to . Ahead are France, with 1.47 billion euros, England, with 1.3 billion, Spain, with 1.27 billion, and Germany, valued at 998 million.
Furthermore, the team won the Nations League in 2025 — defeating favorite Spain in the final — decided on penalties after a 2-2 draw. And, in qualifying for the World Cup, Portugal had a more than solid trajectory, with just one defeat — to the Republic of Ireland — and one draw, against Hungary.
The experience of Gauchos on the biggest stages is also important. João Neves, Nuno Mendes, Gonçalo Ramos and Vitinha won the second Champions League in a row this Saturday, with Vitinha being named man of the match in the final in Budapest; and Bruno Fernandes stood out at Manchester United as the Premier League’s assist leader and player of the season in the English league.
CR7 vs. Messi on the way to the final
And, in addition, notes the German, the calculations of the German who correctly guessed the winners of the 2014, 2018 and 2022 editions of the World Championships point to a Portuguese presence in the final, in 2026.
According to the study signed by Joachim Klementhead of strategy at investment bank Panmure Liberum, Portugal would win Group K and eliminate Ivory Coast, Switzerland, Lionel Messi’s Argentina and England before reaching the final at the MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on July 19. A final that, unfortunately, would be lost to the Netherlands. The model projects a closed final, with few goals, decided by a minimum margin.
Klement reached this conclusion through a semi-satirical econometric model. He himself says the prediction is “tongue in cheek” and warns that anyone who takes it too seriously — or bets money based on it — is deluding themselves.
The model starts from socioeconomic and sporting variables that can help explain international success in football: GDP per capita, population size, temperature/climate, home advantage and, to capture the current strength of the team, FIFA ranking points. The idea is that richer countries have better infrastructure and training, countries with larger populations have a greater pool of talent, extreme climates make it difficult to play football regularly, and the host team benefits from local support.
Then, the model transforms these variables into probabilities for games and phases of the competition. Clement says can explain around 55% of the variation in success between selections; the remaining 45% is left to luck.
