The United States and Iran reached a preliminary peace agreement this Sunday to end three and a half months of war in the Middle East, as announced by Pakistan, whose prime minister has announced that the signing will take place next Friday in Switzerland. Both Iran and US President Donald Trump have confirmed the pact. The Republican has also anticipated the imminent opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
If the agreement materializes, at least in its current form, settling a conflict that the United States and Israel began on February 28 and that has left more than 7,000 dead, has shaken alliances in the region, dealt a severe blow to the global economy and threatens the prospects of Trump and his Republican Party in the November midterm elections. All to achieve, after , what already existed on the eve of the war: an open Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s promise that it does not seek to develop nuclear weapons.
The announcement has come from Pakistan, a mediating country. Its Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, stated after 5:00 p.m. in Washington (six hours more in mainland Spain) on his X account that, “after intense conversations,” “a peace agreement has been reached between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran.” “Both parties have declared the immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. The official signing ceremony will take place on Friday, June 19 in Switzerland,” the president writes.
Then it was Trump’s turn. The agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran is already closed,” the president, who turns 80 this Sunday, said in Truth. “Congratulations to everyone! I hereby fully authorize the opening of the Strait of Hormuz without tolls and simultaneously authorize the immediate lifting of the naval blockade of the United States. Ships of the world: start your engines! “Let the oil flow!” adds the Republican.
“The text of the memorandum of understanding has already been finalized,” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, later confirmed, as reported by the Tasnim agency. The official signing, the senior official has also indicated, will take place on Friday in Switzerland.
The immediate and permanent end of the war and military operations on the various fronts, including Lebanon, will be announced starting tonight, Deputy Minister Gharibabadi has assured, according to Tasnim. The number two in Iranian diplomacy has clarified, however, that the signing of the memorandum of understanding does not mean that Tehran trusts “the enemy,” and has warned that if the Islamic Republic considers that the United States has violated the terms “we will take our own measures.”
The important thing will come in the sixty-day negotiations to reach a definitive agreement, he added. These negotiations will address, according to him, the lifting of sanctions on Iran, as well as its nuclear program, mechanisms for monitoring compliance with commitments and a reconstruction plan for Iran. These contacts, in which the mediators who have facilitated the preliminary agreement – mainly Pakistan, but also Qatar, Turkey and Egypt – will also participate, will begin once the new ceasefire has come into force, the Strait of Hormuz has been unblocked and Iranian funds abroad have been unfrozen.
The senior Iranian official has also stressed that starting tonight the United States will begin to lift the blockade it imposed against Iranian ports.
The announcement of the agreement puts an end to a week of vertigo that began with a serious escalation of the exchange of fire between the two forces, in two consecutive days of bombings that shook the truce – theoretically in force since April 8, although dotted with non-compliance. Trump promised for weeks that it was within reach, but the agreement failed to materialize.
Both parties have litigated and disagreed until the last moment about the content of the memorandum of understanding – that provisional agreement whose text will be known on Friday – which establishes a ceasefire of another 60 days to negotiate the final agreement during that time.
The versions of what was negotiated that have been disclosed in recent days differ depending on which of the two parties explains it to their public. The Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, quoted by his country’s state television, assured last Friday, as his number two has now corroborated, that the provisional agreement will include reopening and ending conflicts on multiple fronts; including the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, something Israel has so far refused to do. The underlying issue, the future of Iran’s nuclear program, will not be agreed upon now but at the end of another negotiation period of several weeks.
In the immediate term, the key is to see what both parties agree on the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime corridor that is essential for international oil, gas and fertilizer traffic. Iran has until now maintained that its sovereignty — and that of neighboring Oman — over the strait should be recognized, and has flirted with the idea of charging tolls for ships passing through it (something that did not happen before the war) to use the money to rebuild the country after the bombings. The United States refuses to.
Discussion front
Another front of discussion is that of Iranian funds held abroad and that Tehran claims. The Islamic Republic hopes to receive 24 billion dollars frozen abroad, half of them before new negotiations on the nuclear program begin, and that in those talks Washington will offer a reconstruction plan of at least 300 billion dollars. He also maintains that the sanctions that weigh on his economy will be lifted.
Washington’s version differs. According to a senior official who spoke last week on condition of anonymity in a telephone conversation with journalists, the agreement foresees that the terms will be applied gradually: Iran would receive funds currently frozen abroad but only in tranches, as it fulfilled its part of the pact, especially regarding its nuclear program. “They will be financially rewarded for fulfilling their obligations included in the agreement. If they deliver their nuclear material, as they have promised, they will receive something. If they dismantle their nuclear facilities, they will receive something else. If they do not comply, they will have no economic benefits,” this source insisted.
After closing the pact, now it will be time to put it into practice, which may be the most complicated part. Both sides harbor a deep distrust of each other, and do not want to offer the other any chance to declare themselves the winner.
The Iranian regime will have to convince the Revolutionary Guard, much more reinforced as a result of this war, that the result is worth it. Trump does not want, under any circumstances, to be accused that the result is similar—or worse—than the nuclear agreement negotiated by the Barack Obama Administration and signed in 2015 by Iran and the Western powers (JCPOA), by which Tehran limited its nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.
The Republican withdrew the United States from the agreement in 2018, saying that the terms were terrible and despite the International Atomic Energy Agency certifying that Tehran was fulfilling its commitments. Washington’s departure undid that agreement. As a result, Iran accelerated its nuclear program.
The memorandum of understanding, and the agreement that may emerge from future negotiations, “will likely allow Iran to have achieved a ‘new normal, in which the United States no longer automatically considers that directly attacking its neighbors and de facto controlling Hormuz constitutes a the events of war”, said before the confirmation of the agreement William Weschler, former deputy assistant secretary of Defense for the fight against terrorism and current analyst of the think tank Atlantic Council.
