A week later, what exactly are the United States and Iran getting out of their agreement?

The US and Iran reached a truce that reduced open warfare and has already brought some stability, especially with the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the return of Iranian oil exports. However, the agreement is fragile and provisional, with several tensions still unresolved

The great news is that the United States and Iran are no longer openly at war.

That alone is a victory that likely saved lives a week after President Donald Trump signed a memorandum of understanding in France to stop the fighting. Such a pause was never guaranteed, given half a century of hostility between Washington and Tehran and a full century of shattered peace agreements.

So far, the MOU — a 14-point framework for negotiations toward permanent peace — has also resisted suspicions among many U.S. lawmakers that it enshrines U.S. defeat.

This is because the costs of returning to conflict are now prohibitive for both sides, in a context of strong internal political headwinds ahead of the midterm elections. Trump revealed last week that he is unwilling to pay the economic price of more war. And why would Iran break the truce now, when it is receiving immediate benefits without giving up much of its central negotiating position?

Although the agreement may point to an exit from the war, it does not represent a lasting peace. It is a typically Trumpist mechanism to buy time while postponing difficult political decisions until later.

Even so, benefits for both sides are already emerging.

The Strait of Hormuz is open – sort of

Probably the most tangible benefit for the United States is the fact that Iran has reopened the strait.

Maritime traffic in the strait has increased significantly in recent days, with 70 crossings on Wednesday, according to Kpler, which monitors activity using transponders and satellite data. That’s more than double Tuesday’s total, though still below the more than 100 crossings typical before the war began.

The strait has not yet fully reopened: Iran continues to require permits to navigate the canal’s roughly 23-mile-wide northern corridor, and mines in the center force traffic to use a single shipping lane near the coast of Oman. In a sign that tensions persist, a cargo ship was hit by an Iranian drone in the strait on Thursday, it said. The incident disrupted an operation to free thousands of sailors trapped on vessels in the Persian Gulf since the start of the war.

Still, the increase in tanker traffic is an encouraging step towards the normalization of global oil flows.

The closure of the strait created the biggest oil shock in history and is expected to cost the world a record 1.6 billion barrels of oil supply, according to JPMorgan. That has had a dual effect: high prices and a drastic reduction in reserves, driving consumer confidence to historic lows and threatening the US economy with oil shortages – a problem that Trump acknowledged last week could have led to an “economic catastrophe” and comparisons with President Herbert Hoover.

Reopening the strait – which was fully open before the war – does not immediately solve these problems. Furthermore, the agreement to allow fee-free crossings only lasts 60 days from signing last week. After that, Iran (and possibly Oman) could charge fees, estimated at between $1 and $2 per barrel, which could give Iran millions of dollars a day in revenue.

Iran started selling oil again

The good news about the reopening of the strait comes with a caveat: Iran may start selling oil again. And unlike the pre-war period, you can sell it to literally any buyer after the US Treasury has lifted sanctions. Many critics fear that Iran will replenish drone and missile programs and reactivate the network of armed allies that includes Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen.

Iran has already started exporting oil again, although there is still little evidence of sales beyond China. It successfully exported 3.8 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz last week, shortly after the US agreed to end the naval blockade, according to the company TankerTrackers. Since then, activity has increased significantly.

According to Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at consultancy Rystad, the country will be able to sell around 2 million barrels per day – around a third above the pre-war period. And as these sales become legal and open, Iran no longer needs to make aggressive discounts.

Other financial incentives

Iran insists it will not accept a long-term deal without access to more than $100 billion in assets frozen in banks around the world. US officials told CNN last week that no funds will be released until Iran meets its commitments.

The MOU states that Iran’s frozen funds and assets will be made “fully available” for use by Iran’s central bank, but does not explain timelines or scope.

The deal could also create a $300 billion investment fund to help rebuild the country. Details remain unclear, but the administration says the funding will be private and not paid for by U.S. taxpayers. Trump said at the G7 that other countries and investors will be able to participate in Iran’s economic recovery, although he doubts there will be much interest in the near future.

The agreement also provides for a final understanding that eliminates sanctions on Iran and allows the return to international trade.

Some foreign financial institutions may be more willing to do business with Tehran, although many must wait for specific licenses from the U.S. Treasury. There is, however, an important issue: it is not clear to what extent Trump can lift sanctions alone. A suspicious Congress may have to approve some of that relief.

The complicated issue of inspections

Trump wrote on social media this week that UN nuclear inspectors will have access to Iran “forever!!!” Vice President JD Vance called the opening for inspections an “important milestone.”

But the reality is more complex. It is not clear that the Islamic Republic has accepted anything concrete. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei suggested that Tehran is only recognizing Non-Proliferation Treaty obligations after it suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency following last year’s U.S. bombings of nuclear facilities. The IAEA argues that the MOU gives it a central role. Iran responds that any inspection must await a final agreement.

Disputes over international inspectors have already caused years of clashes between the US and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and, more recently, Iran. Disagreements included legal authority, team composition and freedom to visit nuclear or suspected facilities.

Iran will almost certainly try to repeat this strategy. And a final agreement without rigorous verification mechanisms is unlikely to have real value.

Lebanon can call everything into question

The MOU demands an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts, . But that country – repeatedly devastated by civil wars and the constant scene of the dispute between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah – may be the weakest point of the agreement. Trump’s critics, especially in Israel, fear that the deal will allow Iran to rebuild an allied force weakened by months of Israeli attacks. By convincing Trump to include Lebanon, Iran is able to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to limit military operations – or risk the collapse of an agreement important to Trump in symbolic, political and economic terms.

However, Israel does not consider itself bound by the agreement. Previous ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah have repeatedly failed, and before the MOU, Israel carried out the deepest incursions into Lebanon in the last 25 years.

The Trump administration and Netanyahu’s team did not hide their discomfort with the end of the war. And Israel’s insistence on maintaining freedom of action to defend its security in Lebanon – and across the Middle East – will be a test of Trump’s authority as negotiations with Iran progress.

And Iran will almost certainly remind everyone that it has a new trump card in its hand: .