The next major crisis in the global financial system may not come from a credit collapse, but from a cyber attack. This factor was considered “one of the biggest risks not priced and not reflected in bank assessments”, according to a recent report signed by analyst Kian Abouhossein, from JPMorgan.
The document warns that the ability of frontier artificial intelligence models such as Mythos and GPT-5.5 to identify and exploit vulnerabilities in banking systems in a matter of hours drastically compresses the response window that banks have to fix breaches before these flaws are exploited by criminals.
To reduce this risk, the JPMorgan proposes measures such as more rigorous infrastructure resistance tests, with simulations that assess whether systems can operate normally even under attack.
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Furthermore, the bank suggests incorporating into stress tests a scenario of a mass rush to withdraw funds caused by a cyber incident, something similar to the one that brought down the Credit Suisse in 2023, but triggered not by financial rumors but by a security breach.
For the JPMorganbanks in the United States and China are seen as the best positioned to face the scenario, thanks to the greater volume of technology spending and earlier access to the most advanced AI models. European banks appear in a more vulnerable position, with smaller technology budgets.
This imbalance would justify, according to the JPMorgana revaluation of multiples. Currently, American banks trade at an average of 12.5 times projected earnings for 2028, compared to 9 times for European banks and 12 times for Japanese megabanks. The bank suggests that this premium may be deserved, and that it should grow for institutions with stable and surplus deposit bases, which would be better able to weather a cyber-based crisis.
Cybersecurity as a priority in Brazil
Brazilian banks are attentive to this scenario. According to the Febraban Banking Technology Survey 2026, carried out by Deloitte and released on June 26, Brazilian banks plan to invest R$50.4 billion in information and communication technology (ICT) this year, an increase of approximately 8% over the R$46.8 billion invested in 2025 (an increase of 12% over 2024).
The most revealing data from the survey is that cybersecurity reached 100% priority among the institutions interviewed. In other words, no participating bank failed to identify it as a critical investment area.
Cloud computing, artificial intelligence, blockchain and quantum computing complete the top of the sector’s technological priorities. In AI, the jump was significant: contributions grew 39% in 2025, from R$596 million to R$834 million, with a projection of exceeding R$1 billion in 2026.
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