WASHINGTON — More than 2 million Russian and Ukrainian soldiers were killed or injured in Russia’s four-year war against its neighbor, according to a new study — a grim milestone amid Russia’s continued offensive.
The study, published this Wednesday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, states that Russia has suffered the heaviest impact, with 1.4 million military personnel killed or injured since February 2022, when it invaded Ukraine.
Of this total, 450,000 died — a number four times greater than the total number of fatalities in the United States in all wars since World War II.
Ukrainian forces, in turn, suffered between 525,000 and 625,000 casualties, including between 125,000 and 150,000 deaths, according to the study.
Officials warn, however, that casualty figures have been difficult to estimate throughout the war because Moscow is accused of routinely underreporting its deaths and injuries, while Ukraine does not release its official figures. The study was based on estimates from governments in the United States and the United Kingdom, among other sources.
Still, the numbers paint a stark portrait of Russia’s slow advance into Ukraine, with Russian troops advancing, in some areas, at less than 50 meters per day. In February, according to analysts, Ukraine regained more territory than it lost for the first time since 2023, as it intensified offensives in the south of the country.
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“Russia’s territorial control in Ukraine shrank in the spring of 2026,” the study says. “Russian forces lost more ground than they gained in both April and May, with a net loss of about 400 square kilometers and the first monthly retreats since August 2024 — yet another sign of Russia’s military difficulties.”
Ukraine received a small reprieve in February when Elon Musk unexpectedly blocked the use of the Starlink satellite internet service by Russian troops. This gave Ukrainian forces a brief respite from drone strikes and easier movement, according to analysts.
The Russians outnumber the Ukrainians nearly 3 to 1 on the battlefield, and Russia relies on a larger population to replace its troops. Therefore, although the study points to a lower absolute number of Ukrainian losses, the country is losing a larger share of its army, which is proportionally smaller.
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More than 400,000 Russians would be facing around 250,000 Ukrainians on the front line, according to military analysts.
Russia managed to maintain its troop levels despite high casualties by carrying out its first conscription since World War II and enlisting convicts and debtors, among other tactics. President Vladimir Putin has offered bonuses to new recruits and pressured people accused of crimes to enlist in exchange for the charges being dropped.
Additionally, in 2024 and 2025, North Korea sent more than 10,000 troops to help Russia retake the Kursk region in the west of the country, where Ukraine had seized territory.
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The study states that, by 2026, Russia’s monthly casualties — between 30,000 and 34,000 — will likely exceed its recruitment rate, estimated at around 27,000 new soldiers per month.
The report comes at a time when President Donald Trump has largely distanced himself from the war in Ukraine. At a summit in France last month, Trump made it clear that the conflict — which he has said he can end in 24 hours — is not among his priorities.
“Look, we have nothing to do with this,” Trump said, adding, “This has no impact on us except for the fact that we sell weapons” to Ukraine.
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The statements reinforce a new security reality for the United States’ allies in Europe, who for eight decades relied on American protection until the Trump administration made it clear that this protection belongs to the past.
Trump has come to treat U.S. involvement in Ukraine more as a humanitarian mission than an effort to protect an ally, citing the number of casualties on both sides as a reason for wanting to end the war.
Supporters of Ukraine, including in the US Congress, argue that preventing a Russian victory is also necessary to prevent a strengthened Putin from advancing on other NATO allies.
The war in Ukraine is expected to be one of the topics discussed at a NATO summit this Tuesday, in Ankara, Turkey.
According to the study, without more pressure from the United States and Europe on Russia, Putin will continue the war, despite high losses.
The report also highlights that Ukraine has taken the conflict more intensely to Russian territory through the use of drones, missiles and an increasingly effective air campaign.
Last month, Ukraine launched its biggest drone attack against Moscow since the start of the war.
And this week, it began carrying out new drone attacks again, including against the capital and Crimea, a peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014. In total, Russia claimed to have shot down 419 drones, according to a statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
“Russia faces by far its darkest period of war since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022,” said Seth Jones, one of the study’s authors. “War has reached the everyday lives of Russians, who are paying the price of Putin’s war with a sluggish economy, soaring prices, an increasing number of body bags returning from the front lines and drone strikes on Russian cities.”
c.2026 The New York Times Company
