Projection by the Secretariat of Economic Policy indicates growth in services and industry, with weaker performance in agriculture
The Ministry of Finance projects that Brazil’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will grow 2.3% in 2026according to the report “What to expect in 2026”, released by the SPE (Secretariat for Economic Policy) this Friday (6).
According to the document, before the release of the GDP for the third quarter of 2025, the growth expectation for 2026 was 2.4%. With the slowdown in activity expected for the second half of 2025, the projection has been revised downwards.
A Agriculture is expected to grow 0.5% in 2026. Grain production tends to be lower than in 2025, despite the record soybean harvest and the increase in coffee and sugar cane production. The drop in corn and rice production and the lower supply of cattle should limit the sector’s results.
I and industry is forecast to grow 2.3% in 2026. Extractive production should advance, but at a slower pace, while the manufacturing industry and construction should recover, driven by incentive programs and greater credit supply.
O services sector expected to grow 2.4% next year. The advance will be supported by increased income, the expansion of credit and a still resilient job market, in addition to the expectation of lower interest rates at the end of 2026.
Economic projections – Disclosure/Report “What to expect 2026”
Inflation
The SPE report also indicates an expectation of a slowdown in inflation in 2026. projection for the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) is 3.6% throughout the year.
According to the document, the Inflation should benefit from the global excess supply of goods and fuelsin addition to the lagged effects of the recent appreciation of the real against the dollar and the restrictive monetary policy. Despite this, the report points out that moderate pressures on food prices are still expected.
At the same time, the financial market forecast for the IPCA, the official reference for inflation in the country, .
The estimate was published last Monday (2) in the Focus bulletin, released by Banco Central (BC) with the expectation of financial institutions for the main economic indicators.
External scenario
The Ministry of Finance assesses that, despite the geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensionsglobal economic growth was stronger than expected at the beginning of the year.
The result was driven by the anticipation of trade in the face of new tariffs, the adaptation of production chains, the increase in investments in artificial intelligence and the fall in inflation, which allowed the start of interest cuts in some central economies.
For 2026, the expectation is that global growth remains stablewith continued deceleration of inflation and improvement in financial conditions.
