The CBF, represented by its president, Samir Xaud, wants to – it has already expressed its desire openly. The coach, Italian Carlo Ancelotti, wants to – he did not express his desire openly, but he made statements that allow for a credible conclusion.
It is a matter of (a little) time before the extension of Carletto’s contract (here, we are trying to get Carlinhos) with the Brazilian team is announced until 2030.
Analyzing coldly, this is a mistake, an unreasonable decision by the confederation that controls football in Brazil.
Why renew now, before evaluating performance in the World Cup, which is what really matters? We know that if Brazil, which is not doing very well, does not do very well in this year’s tournament, which starts in June – and doing very well means at least reaching the semi-finals –, the existence of a contract until the following World Cup will in practice be non-existent.
As much as Ancelotti has a reputation, an envy-inducing CV, a gentlemanly demeanor and a desire to stay (Rio has many charms), what keeps the coach in his position or not, whether in the national team or club, is the result. You won, you have a chance to stay. He didn’t win, he only stays if his image isn’t damaged – with a bad World Cup, it will be.
Only one coach who did not triumph with Brazil in a World Cup had enough credit to continue in his role: Tite, defeated in 2018 and later in 2022, both times in the quarter-finals, in matches in which the Brazilian team created much more than their opponents.
Despite not having triumphed, Cruzeiro’s current coach made the team perform like never before, with 74% wins (60 in 81 games), an exceptional rate. Ancelotti, in eight games so far, has won four (50%).
By betting on Carletto’s continuity now, the historically chaotic CBF, which will sell a speech of planning and organization when announcing the renewal, is taking unnecessary risks.
Contracts usually have termination clauses side by side, and if the confederation decides to get rid of Ancelotti – it will be pressured to do so if Brazil disappoints in the World Cup – it will have to pay a fortune. Waiting for the end of the World Cup for renewal would avoid this scenario.
It went badly? Contract terminated, “ciao”. It went well? The parties sit at the table and talk. Champion Ancelotti, does his market value skyrocket? Yes. Will you ask for a bigger salary adjustment than now? Yes. But it’s a risk worth taking. Let’s be realistic: Brazil is not a favorite.
Furthermore, if the cup comes, the Italian will become a “Brazilian hero”. The negotiating environment will be largely favorable for a renewal, with the streets shouting “Carlinhos, Carlinhos” (goodbye to Carletto, it will be Carlinhos forever). Unless he is extremely greedy, Ancelotti will reach a good deal with the CBF.
He currently earns around R$5 million per month, a fable, absurd, considering that we are in Brazil, a country where the minimum wage is R$1,621. With the renewal now, there would be an estimated increase of 20%. Cup won, you can ask for 40%, 50%. The CBF will increase its revenue with more sponsors (what company wouldn’t want to link its image to the sixth world team?), it will pay with a single foot on its back.
Waiting would mean wisdom, which is scarce in the world of football. To rush is to gamble, and Xaud can eat it raw.
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