World stock markets say goodbye to February with a mixture of contained euphoria and growing caution. In a session marked by doubts on Wall Street and (AI), the main indices around the world have turned red. And although the weekly and monthly balance is positive, the feeling persists among the markets that, beneath the surface of the indices, the currents are more turbulent than the bullish streak suggests.
The Ibex 35 has fallen 0.73% in the session although it has reached 18,500 points during the day. Despite the falls, it has managed to chain its eighth consecutive month of increases, something that had not happened since the period prior to the outbreak of the financial crisis that followed the fall of Lehman Brothers. In the last week the index has risen 0.9% and ended the month of February with an increase of 2.7%%. In this Friday’s session, and reaches historical highs thanks to the results presented this Thursday. Merlin Properties advances 6% after posting a record operating profit. And Telefónica rises 5%.
On the decline side, IAG lost 7% after presenting good results for 2025 but with figures below expectations in the last quarter of the year. Grifols plummets 6% after publishing its annual accounts in which it has more than doubled profits, and Santander drops 3%. The banking sector, which in recent times has been behind the records broken by the Ibex, has acted as a ballast. In addition to Santander, BBVA fell 2% and Sabadell 1.8%.
The adjustment is not exclusive to Madrid. In Europe, the German Dax lost 0.15%, the French Cac 0.44% and the Italian Mib 0.21%, while in the United States the opening was clearly bearish: the Dow Jones lost 1.4%, the S&P 500 0.96% and the Nasdaq 1.1%. It drags the market as a whole, in a session that confirms that complacency has disappeared. The bar is getting higher and the market reaction is less predictable.
Axel Botte, head of market strategy at Ostrum AM, summarizes the moment for the stock markets: “Western stock markets are navigating without a clear trend. Since the beginning of the earnings season, better-than-expected reports have not guaranteed a positive market reaction, which points to fragility or greater selectivity among investors.”
The results season, which has marked the pulse of recent days, has left an uneven panorama. The trickle of presentation of corporate accounts has supported the indices in aggregate terms, but has caused strong movements in individual values. The international reference that fell 5% despite presenting solid quarterly results for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025 and a guide for the first quarter of 2026 above expectations. According to Renta 4 analysts, the company failed to completely dispel doubts regarding the pace and sustainability of the rise of artificial intelligence. The market, accustomed to spectacular surprises, now seems to demand something more than brilliant figures and seeks certainty.
The shakeup in the semiconductor giant has reignited the debate about technology and AI as a stock market driver. In this Friday’s session the Dow Jones fell 1.3%, the S&P 500 fell 1% and the technology Nasdaq fell 1.2%. In the week and in the month, the three main Wall Street indices closed February with large falls, which reflects this distrust towards technological values.
Volatility, far from dissipating, has settled in the market. This is reflected in investors, who rose 12% this Friday. This is an index that measures the expected volatility of the market in the next 30 days. When it rises a lot, investors expect a lot of uncertainty and falls in the stock markets.
Vincenzo Vedda, Chief Investment Officer at DWS, warns that “the good start to the year in the stock markets masks the fact that there is considerable turbulence beneath the surface. Many individual stocks are experiencing strong swings, with some falling by 10% or more in a single day.” He also points to a sectoral turn: “Defensive sectors are outperforming growth stocks to a degree not seen since periods such as Covid, the financial crisis or the dotcom bubble. After seven weeks, the S&P 500 consumer staples have risen more than 10%, while the software sector has fallen more than 20%.”
Investors are seeking refuge and reviewing the most demanding valuations with a magnifying glass. “Artificial intelligence and geopolitics remained the focus of financial markets, leading to a retreat from risk assets and a shift towards safe havens,” said Mantas Vanagas, senior economist at Westpac Group. Despite this, experts reject the idea of a generalized bubble. “The AI industry is often not linear. Supposed certainties fade in the blink of an eye, and winners and losers change positions. Investors are nervous. Still, these market movements are consistent with our conviction that we are not experiencing an AI bubble, but rather an AI boom,” concludes Vedda.
Beyond technology, the market continues to monitor the advance of geopolitical tensions. On the energy front, Brent oil, the benchmark in Europe, advances 2.8% in the session and accumulates a rise of 20% in 2026, reaching around $73 per barrel. All eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of the world’s crude oil supply transits. The hypothesis of military action by the United States and a possible response by Iran keeps the geopolitical premium alive. Even so, this Sunday OPEC+ will probably choose to increase supply by about 137,000 barrels per day in April, after keeping it stable in the first quarter due to seasonal weakness in demand.
On a political and commercial level, investors are also evaluating the impact of the recent ruling by the United States Supreme Court against tariffs. Xavier Chapard, strategist at LBP AM, warns that “uncertainties around tariffs remain numerous: what will happen with the return of tariffs illegally charged by the US and which represent around 0.5 points of GDP? Will the global tariff rise to 15%?”
These tensions have once again given gold wings as a safe haven asset and an ounce is trading at $5,200. “There are two factors supporting gold. First, the current tariff uncertainty in the market and, on the other hand, the situation between Iran and the United States,” says Soni Kumari, an analyst at ANZ.
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