Shortly after 03:00 on Friday morning (local time), state television interrupted its program broadcasting an emergency “red alert” as tensions escalated and Kabul moved into an open military phase.
The Pakistani armed forces have announced the launch of Operation Ghazab lil-Haq (Righteous Fury, in Urdu), according to an official statement. Nuclear-armed Pakistan’s offensive against its western neighbor, Afghanistan, began with airstrikes against “the Afghan Taliban regime,” PTV News reported.
Minutes later, Pakistan’s Defense Minister, Khwaja Muhammad Asif, in a post on Platform X, laid out Islamabad’s rationale for resorting to military force. He accused the Taliban of “turning Afghanistan into a colony of India” and “exporting terrorism,” concluding: “Now there is open war between us.”
With his statement, Asif condensed Islamabad’s key geostrategic concerns: the potential deepening of ties between the Taliban and India — Pakistan’s traditional rival — as well as the perennial struggle for influence in Afghanistan after US forces leave.
Escalation after months of tension
Friday’s “open war” is the culmination of a prolonged period of diplomatic friction and cross-border incidents along the 2,600km border. Islamabad accuses the Taliban regime in Kabul of harboring armed groups working against the Pakistani state; the Taliban rejects the accusations, saying security in Pakistan is an internal matter.
Relations between the two sides have been close in the past. After the United States overthrew the first Taliban regime in 2001, Pakistan was accused of harboring the movement’s leaders and fighters. The Taliban’s return to power in August 2021 was initially seen in Islamabad as an opportunity to deepen cooperation. However, this expectation was not confirmed.
A central thorn remains the disputed Durand Line, the colonial-origin border drawn in 1893 that has never been officially recognized by Kabul. The issue permeates Pashtun communities on both sides of the border and is a perennial source of tension.
Terrorist attacks and failed negotiations
The immediate reason for the escalation is attributed to a surge in attacks over the past year. According to the South Asian Terrorism Portal, Pakistan recorded at least 1,070 violent incidents last year — including bomb attacks — with nearly 4,000 deaths, making it the deadliest year in a decade.
Talks held in Doha in October resulted in a 48-hour ceasefire, which collapsed hours after it ended. New rounds of negotiations followed, with no tangible result, while the implementation of the armistice, the establishment of a joint commission on the Durand Line and the opening of trade passages were on the table.
The India factor and the logic of “proxies”
The deterioration of relations is also linked to the Taliban’s rapprochement with India, with which Pakistan has a longstanding dispute over Kashmir. In an interview with FRANCE 24, Asif spoke of a “proxy war,” arguing that India, in collaboration with the Taliban government, is fomenting destabilization inside Pakistan — a claim New Delhi rejects.
At the same time, Islamabad accuses Kabul of providing shelter to militants of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) organization, which operates inside Pakistani territory and is considered terrorist.
Asymmetric military power
The military balance between the two sides is clearly unequal. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Pakistan has more than 600,000 active troops, more than 6,000 armored vehicles and more than 400 fighter jets, as well as a nuclear arsenal.
Taliban forces are estimated at around 172,000 fighters. Although after twenty years of American presence in Afghanistan they have acquired military means, they do not have comparable air power.
This imbalance fuels fears of a transition to forms of asymmetric or unorthodox warfare. International media correspondents in Islamabad report that there is concern over a possible escalation of terrorist attacks in major urban centers in response to the Pakistani military operation.
