In the last scene of the second film Rambo, the character played by Sylvester Stallone, walks away after the battle, covered in dust and with the echo of war still echoing behind. There is no celebration or sense of victory, only the impression that the conflict has left scars that will take a long time to heal. Something similar is happening now in Middle East: The war with Iran is no longer a one-time operation, and threatens to spill over more and more borders.
What began with bombings on strategic Iranian facilities has transformed into a much larger game board in just a few days. Missiles over the Gulf, drones against US bases, diplomatic tensions between Western allies, financial markets on alert and direct threats to world oil paint a scenario in which the conflict is advancing in several directions, and none of them good, at the same time.
The question that now dominates all analysis centers and international organizations is not so much what has happened already, but rather what will happen in the coming days. It’s hard to know. Or not.
A war that is already being fought in several countries
One of the elements that worries experts the most right now is the speed with which The conflict has crossed the borders of Iran and Israel. There is hardly any respite and there is a lot of hurry. It is not a good sign for what may happen.
During the early hours of Wednesday, several Persian Gulf countries allied with the United States once again recorded missile and drone attacks attributed to the Iranian response to the joint offensive launched by Washington y Tel Aviv.
Saudi Arabia reported that its air defense systems intercepted nine drones heading into its airspace. In Kuwait, the Ministry of Defense announced the destruction of several “hostile targets”, whose remains fell on residential areas. The shrapnel generated by these interceptions caused the death of an eleven-year-old girl.according to the country’s health authorities.
Qatar also reported an attack on the military base in Al Udeid, which houses American troops. Two missiles from Iran were detected: one was intercepted and another hit the facilities.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard, for its part, claimed to have attacked a US destroyer in the Indian Ocean, in an operation that has not yet been confirmed by Washington. Many open fronts, more and more actors involved and the world remains in maximum tensionwith a heavy heart and assuming that every small decision can trigger terrible consequences.
From Iran has responded with waves of drones and missiles directed both against Israeli territory and against allied countries. Washington in the region, especially against military bases and embassies.
The result is a conflict that is already developing in several simultaneous scenarios and that threatens to continue expanding.
The political pulse that reaches Europe
As the military front spreads across the Middle East, the war has also opened political rifts within the Western bloc. One of the most striking episodes has been the exchange of statements today between the American president,
Trump publicly criticized the position of the Spanish Executive regarding the offensive against Iran, suggesting a lack of support for Washington’s military strategy. Sánchez responded by defending the need to avoid a further escalation and stressed the importance of seeking a diplomatic solution.
The exchange reflects an uncomfortable reality: Europe does not maintain a firm or completely unified position in the face of the conflict. While some governments support military pressure on Tehranothers warn that a prolonged war could further destabilize the region.
The drone war and new weapons
Another factor that is defining this war is the intensive use of new military technologies. The United States has claimed to have destroyed 17 military ships Iranians and a submarine, in addition to hundreds of ballistic missiles, during the operations carried out after the start of the offensive.
According to the admiral Brad Cooperhead of the US Central Command, dozens of bombers attacked a military port in southern Iran in a mission that left the Iranian regime without an identifiable naval presence in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
The Pentagon, on the other hand, has also confirmed that around 2,000 military targets have been attacked since the beginning of the conflict, including approximately 100 ballistic missiles destroyed.
In addition, the US Army has deployed massive attacks with drones which work with a system inspired by technologies originally developed by Iran and adapted by Washington to execute large-scale one-way attacks.
However, the Iranian arsenal remains considerable. The United States estimates that the country still has about 5,000 ballistic missiles and around 2,000 drones, many of which remain priority bombing targets.
This new type of war, based on drones, long-range missiles and electronic warfare, it allows attacks to occur quickly and at great distances, increasing the risk of continued escalation. It seems almost impossible to stop or slow down.
The Gulf also becomes a battlefield
Meanwhile, the seafront is beginning to show signs of growing tension. The British Maritime Trade Operations Agency (UKMTO) reported an attack on a merchant ship east of Fujairah, in the United Arab Emirates, after an unknown projectile hit the ship’s hull and caused damage to the steel plating.
Although no fires or injuries were reported, the authorities recommended that all ships transiting the area take extreme precautions.
Hours before that, another captain had reported followed by smoke on the water, about 250 kilometers east of Muscat, Oman. These incidents occur in parallel to the warnings issued by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The threats seem to be carried out.
One of his generals said on state television that They will not allow “not a single drop of oil” leave the region and threatened to set fire to any ship attempting to cross the strait if the military offensive continues.
In the context of one of the latest waves of attacks, Iran launched 26 drones and five ballistic missiles against targets in Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and the Strait of Hormuz itselfas reported by the Iranian military itself. Although a direct relationship between these attacks and incidents against ships has not been confirmed, the increase in military activity in the Gulf reinforces fear that the conflict will also reach maritime routes.
Cyprus has become an important focus
The markets react
And with all this, of course, the war is already having effects beyond the military field. The Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange plummeted in its session this Wednesday about 4%, reflecting investors’ concern about the impact that the conflict could have on global energy supply. The indicator lost more than 2,100 points in the first half of the day.
The fear now centers on the possibility of the war affecting the Strait of Hormuz, which is a powder keg and a key factor in all of this. We must not forget that it is a strategic maritime passage through which approximately one fifth of the world’s oil circulates, as we have already emphasized on more than one occasion these days.
Any prolonged disruption to traffic at that point could lead to a sharp rise in the price of crude oil and new inflationary strains on the global economy.
The risk of an unstoppable escalation
With all these elements on the table, analysts consider several possible scenarios. Where are we going?
The first would be a limited warfocused on specific attacks against military infrastructure. The second would involve a regional expansionwith more countries drawn into the conflict through military bases or allied militias.
The third, and the one that most worries experts – and the entire world – would be a progressive escalation in which each retaliation pushes the adversary to respond with greater intensity. And the danger of nuclear energy is something that everyone has in mind and that no one seems to want to name.
The United States has already warned that military operations could last for weeks. Israel, for its part, insists that its goal is to neutralize Iranian military capabilities. AND Tehran has promised to respond to each attack.
In this balance of blows and counter-blows lies the greatest danger of the conflict: a dynamic in which none of the actors wants to appear as the first to back down.
An end that is not yet in sight
The recent history of The Middle East is full of wars that began as limited operations and ended up becoming conflicts much longer than expected. For now, the war with Iran seems to advance on that same uncertain terrain, where each military or political movement can change the course of events.
And while drones fly over the Gulf, missiles cross borders, ships navigate cautiously and markets react nervously, the dominant feeling is that the conflict is still far from showing its outcome.
Like in that final scene of Rambothe battlefield may be silent for a few moments, but the war, in reality, continues to advance a few steps beyond the horizon.
