Donald Trump will shower it with billions of dollars to sustain pressure on his markets. The United States has temporarily lifted sanctions imposed on the sale of Russian crude oil and other petroleum products that were already loaded on ships before March 12. The concession will last a month, if Trump does not extend it in the future, and could mean the placement of some 100 million barrels of Russian oil on the markets, according to Putin’s special envoy and director of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Kiril Dimitriev. In a first reaction from Brussels, the president of the European Council, António Costa, criticized “the unilateral decision” of the United States. “It is very worrying,” the Portuguese said on his social networks, reports Manuel V. Gómez.
“In the context of a growing energy crisis, greater flexibility on restrictions on Russian energy resources seems increasingly inevitable,” said Dimitriev, claiming victory on his social networks.
Ukraine has always made the sanctions against Russia its economic suffocation and the need to be able to use the funds blocked from Moscow one of the pillars of its defense against the great invasion unleashed in 2022. Therefore, the decision to unblock the Kremlin’s oil to control the rise in price in the middle of the war against Iran represents a setback for the policies led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, visiting Paris today.
US Treasury Department Secretary Scott Bessent has emphasized that the permission granted by his Office of Foreign Assets Control only applies to Russian oil already in transit on the high seas.
Hard blow for Zelensky
The conversations between President Emmanuel Macron and Zelensky have precisely at their heart Ukraine’s desire to increase pressure against Moscow and toughen sanctions on Russia. The so-called activity is one of Zelensky’s main concerns. That is why the strategy adopted by the United States represents a serious blow to the waterline of its international policy.
The Ukrainian president also seeks, with Macron, his main European ally, that the conflict in his country not be completely removed from the international agenda after the contacts between kyiv and Moscow that Washington supervised have been suspended. sine the due to the attacks on Tehran and the escalation of the situation in the Gulf.
Therefore, if Trump does not change his mind in the future, all oil extracted by Russia, except what is already on these ships, will remain under US restrictions.
Washington to sell Russian oil to India. This Friday’s announcement is official confirmation that the United States will turn a blind eye to any other customer who wants to purchase the crude oil that Russia had stored in its fleet on the high seas during these months of blockade.
The American carte blanche will also allow the Kremlin to sell its oil without having to offer the enormous discounts that its barrel had when acquiring it could be problematic for its clients due to sanctions. Before the Iran war, the Russian barrel offered a discount of up to $30 on the average international barrel. If Brent was worth 70, the Russian could be bought at 40, under the risk of being sanctioned.
A patch courtesy of the United States
The partial lifting of sanctions comes just as the Kremlin’s accounts were hit by a growing deficit due to the sanctions Trump imposed on his two oil majors, Rosneft and Lukoil, in the fall. Days before the US and Israeli bombings against Iran began, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced new budget cuts to restore the Russian anti-crisis cushion, the National Welfare Fund.
The Russian public deficit reached 3.4 trillion rubles between January and February, about 37 billion euros, almost the objective set by the Government for all of 2026. Although the data is distorted because the beginning of the year is characterized by the execution of many expenses, this year has begun with a 10% drop in total budget income, including a drop by half of money from hydrocarbons.
According to an estimate by the British newspaper Financial TimesRussia will receive an extra $150 million each day that these sanctions are partially suspended.
This restores part of the losses caused by sanctions to Russian coffers. A report from the International Energy Agency cited by Bloomberg estimates that Russia sold about 6.6 million barrels a day in February, approximately 184 million in the entire 28-day month. This represented about $9.5 billion in revenue, about $1.5 billion less than the previous month.
In any case, this injection of extra liquidity, that is, from the invasion against Ukraine, which was going to continue anyway. The Russian economic problems do not come from their budgets, but from a civilian economy totally unbalanced by the consumption of the military industry in the last four years, and not more than half of the budgets as in the past. Furthermore, a sudden injection of foreign currency could further strengthen the ruble, further damaging the competitiveness of Russian companies.
Despite the rain of money caused by the Trump war, the Ministry of Finance maintains its intention to cut spending and tighten its budgetary rules. Moscow does not believe, at least for now, that the current energy crisis will continue throughout the year.
The White House and the Kremlin have maintained a direct line of communication on the energy crisis since attacks on Iran began without approval from the UN Security Council. Donald Trump announced that he would ease sanctions on the oil sectors of several countries after speaking by telephone with Vladimir Putin last week, and his special envoy, Dimitriev, subsequently met in Florida with the representative of Washington, businessman Steve Witkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
The offensive unleashed against Iran, without a declaration of war and described by the United States with the euphemism of a military operation, as Russia does with its aggression against Ukraine, has caused the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of international oil crosses.
A barrel of Brent crude oil is trading around $100, a high price, although within its historical parameters. When Russia unleashed its war against Ukraine in 2022, oil reached $130 and exceeded triple digits for more than three months.
Zelensky’s fear
Zelensky had already warned this week about the danger of easing the siege on Russian oil. “If the sanctions are lifted, it will undoubtedly be a hard blow for us. It will be a blow in terms of weapons. And for the entire world, it will be a very hard blow for our reputation. How can sanctions against Russia be lifted if it is an aggressor? This means that others can do the same, not just them,” the president warned.
Trump’s decision coincides with the sending to the Gulf region announced on Thursday by Zelensky of three teams made up of military personnel, engineers and experts in the fight against drones with which the Ayatollah regime is responding to attacks by the United States and Israel.
