WASHINGTON — Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has been pressing President Donald Trump to continue the war against Iran, arguing that the U.S. and Israeli military campaign represents a “historic opportunity” to redesign the Middle East, according to people briefed by U.S. officials on those conversations.
In a series of contacts over the past week, Prince Mohammed reportedly told Trump that he needs to move toward destroying Iran’s hardline government, sources familiar with those conversations said.
According to these people, the prince argues that Iran poses a long-term threat to the Persian Gulf that can only be eliminated by overthrowing the government in Tehran.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also views Iran as a long-term threat, but analysts say Israeli officials would likely view a failed Iranian state, trapped in internal turmoil and unable to threaten Israel, as a victory. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, sees a state collapse in Iran as a serious and direct risk to its security.
But senior officials in both the Saudi and American governments fear that if the conflict drags on, Iran could launch increasingly harsh attacks on Saudi oil facilities and that the United States could end up locked in an endless war.
In public, Trump has oscillated between suggesting the war could end soon and showing signs that it will escalate. On Monday, the president wrote on social media that his administration and Iran had “productive conversations about a complete and total resolution of our hostilities,” although Tehran disputed the idea that negotiations were underway.
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The consequences of the war for Saudi Arabia’s economy and national security are enormous. Iranian drone and missile attacks, launched in response to the US and Israeli offensive against Iran, have already caused major disruptions in the oil market.
Saudi officials have rejected the idea that Prince Mohammed is pushing to prolong the conflict.
“The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has always supported a peaceful resolution to this conflict, even before it began,” the Saudi government said in a statement, stressing that authorities “maintain close contact with the Trump administration and our commitment remains unchanged.”
“Our main concern today is to defend ourselves from daily attacks against our people and our civilian infrastructure,” the government added. “Iran chose dangerous escalation rather than serious diplomatic solutions. This hurts everyone involved, but none more than Iran itself.”
Trump has at times appeared open to ending the war, but Prince Mohammed has argued that would be a mistake, according to people briefed on the talks, and has advocated attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure to weaken the government in Tehran.
This article is based on interviews with people who spoke with U.S. officials and reported on those discussions on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of Trump’s conversations with foreign leaders. The New York Times heard from sources with varying views on the desirability of continuing the war and Prince Mohammed’s role in advising Trump.
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White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said the administration “does not comment on the president’s private conversations.”
Prince Mohammed, an authoritarian ruler who has led a sustained crackdown on dissent, is respected by Trump and has influenced the president’s decisions in the past. According to people briefed by American officials, the prince has advocated that the United States consider sending troops to Iran to take control of the energy infrastructure and force the government to fall.
In recent days, Trump has begun to more seriously consider a military operation to seize Kharg Island, the main hub of Iran’s oil infrastructure. Such an action, with Army airborne forces or an amphibious assault by Marines, would be extremely risky.
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Still, Prince Mohammed has advocated ground operations in his conversations with Trump, according to people briefed by U.S. officials.
The Saudi view of the war is shaped by both economic and political factors. Since the conflict began, Iran’s retaliatory strikes have all but strangled the Strait of Hormuz, damaging the region’s energy industry. The overwhelming majority of oil exported by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait must pass through the strait to reach international markets.
Although Saudi Arabia and the UAE have built oil pipelines to bypass the strait, these alternative routes have also been the target of attacks.
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Analysts familiar with the Saudi government’s thinking say that while Prince Mohammed would probably prefer to avoid a war, he fears that if Trump backs down now, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Middle East will be left alone to face an angry and emboldened Iran.
From this perspective, they say, an offensive halted in half would leave Saudi Arabia exposed to frequent attacks from Iran. This scenario could also allow Tehran to maintain the power to periodically close the Strait of Hormuz.
“The Saudis certainly want the war to end, but how it ends matters,” said Yasmine Farouk, director of the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula project at the International Crisis Group.
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After Trump’s decision to go to war, made against the advice of several Gulf governments, Iran responded by firing thousands of missiles and drones at countries in the region, hampering efforts to bring Tehran closer to its neighbors, according to Gulf officials.
“What little trust there was before has been completely destroyed,” Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan told reporters last week.
Analysts say Saudi officials have long expressed concern that a state collapse in Iran poses a grave threat to the kingdom. They fear that, even if the Iranian government falls, parts of the Armed Forces — or militias that could emerge in the power vacuum — will continue to attack Saudi Arabia, likely focusing on oil-related targets.
Some US government intelligence analysts have told other officials they believe Prince Mohammed sees the war as an opportunity to expand Saudi influence across the Middle East and is confident the country can protect itself even if the conflict continues.
In conversations with the prince, Trump has expressed concern about the price of oil and the impact on the economy. The Saudi leader has assured him this is only temporary, according to people briefed by U.S. officials.
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