Donald Trump, in his latest, to help keep the Straits of Hormuz open. “They are complaining about the high oil prices they are forced to pay,” he said on social media last week, arguing that they were rejecting “a simple military maneuver, which is the only reason for fuel precision.”
Despite the impulsive nature of his outburst, this statement highlighted a deeper truth: Trump has trapped European leaders in a political and strategic .
Energy suffocation and the specter of Iraq
Iran’s de facto closure of the strategically important waterway has triggered a full-scale energy crisis across the continent. With soaring oil and gas prices angering voters, pressure is mounting on governments to act.
However, the political winds in Europe are blowing against the war. Many European citizens, particularly on the Left, see the military campaign as unjustified and illegal, arguing that it threatens fragile economic growth. At the same time, leaders remain “haunted” by the legacy of the Iraq war.
“We are divided, as usual,” Gérard Araud, a former ambassador to France, told the New York Times. “We are in a state of absolute shock with what is happening.”
Political upheavals in Italy and France
The war is already reshaping the political landscape. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suffered a referendum defeat, with the perception of her closeness to (unpopular in Italy) Trump working against her.
In France, Jacques-Luc Mélenchon’s France Insubordinate party made gains in municipal elections, capitalizing on Muslim voters’ anger over intervention in the Middle East.
The cost of gasoline and the “diplomacy of insults”
In Germany, the price of petrol has exceeded 2 euros per litre, forcing the government into costly tax cuts. Despite the common interest in opening the Straits, Trump does not facilitate cooperation.
The US did not consult its allies on the joint operation with Israel, while Trump continued his insults, targeting British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in particular. Trump declared Starmer “not Winston Churchill” while releasing videos mocking him.
Political risk without a strategic plan
Analysts point out that Trump is not looking for Europe’s military capabilities, but its political cover.
- The military side: Europe could send minesweepers or escort ships.
- The political side: Trump wants to share the political cost of an eventual escalation.
Retired French general Michel Yakovlev notes that European leaders are right to refuse to give Trump political cover, as he has not clarified his strategic goals or presented a plan for exiting the conflict.
The next day: Diplomacy or complete rupture?
French President Emmanuel Macron is working behind the scenes on a UN-sponsored operation while the EU considers expanding existing naval missions.
However, Europe appears caught between the suspicion of Trump and the lack of trust from Iran, which considers the Old Continent “the mouthpiece of the Americans”.
