According to a report released by the Central Bank, projections for Selic, GDP and exchange rate remain stable
The median of the Focus report for the 2026 IPCA rose from 4.36% to 4.71%amidst the uncertainties caused by the conflict in the Middle Eastwhich led to a spike in oil prices on the international market.
It’s the first time that the estimate for this year exceeds the inflation target ceiling of 4.50%. The rate is 0.21 percentage points above the ceiling. A month ago, it was 4.10%.
Defined by the National Monetary Council, the inflation target is 3%with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less. In other words, it varies between 1.5% and 4.5%.
The estimate is from Focus Bulletin this Monday (13), research released weekly by the Central Bank (BC) with the expectation of financial institutions for main economic indicators.
Considering only the 61 estimates updated in the last five business days, the measure went from 4.50% to 4.73%.
The projection for the 2027 IPCA also rose, from 3.85% to 3.91% A month ago, it was 3.80%. Considering only the 61 estimates updated in the last five business days, the median, however, fell from 3.96% to 3.89%.
O Central Bank predicts that the IPCA will end 2026 with an increase of 3.9% and expects that inflation accumulated over 12 months will reach 3.3% over the relevant horizon, currently located in the third quarter of 2027. The trajectory is set out in the communication from the March meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom).
From 2025 onwards, the inflation target became continuous, based on the IPCA accumulated over 12 months. The center is 3%, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points more or less. If inflation stays outside this range for six consecutive months, the BC is considered to have missed the target.
In this Monday’s Focus (13), projections for the 2028 IPCA remained at 3.60% for the first week in a row. Four weeks ago, it was 3.50%. For 2029, the estimate remained at 3.50% for the 32nd consecutive week.
Selic at the end of 2026 remains at 12.50%
The median of the Focus report for the Selic at the end of 2026 remained at 12.50% for the third week in a row. A month ago, it was 12.25%. Considering only the 55 estimates updated in the last five business days, the measure rose from 12.50% to 12.75%.
The projection for the end of 2027 remained at 10.50% for the 61st week in a row. Considering only the 54 estimates updated in the last five business days, the estimate fell from 10.75% to 10.53%.
The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) cut the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage points, from 15% to 14.75% per year, last month. It was the first interest rate reduction in almost two years. Despite the cut, the board warned of increased uncertainty in the scenario.
The president of the Central Bank, Gabriel Galípolo, reinforced the low visibility during a press conference on the Monetary Policy Report (RPM) recently. He said that the monetary authority’s “conservatism” in 2025 buys time to analyze the scenario and understand the effects that the rise in oil prices will have on domestic prices.
“We understand and we will learn more from now until the next Copom meeting. The BC has the benefit of only needing to make a decision every 45 days”, stated Galípolo, reinforcing that there will be a cautious conduct of monetary policy.
In this Monday’s Focus, the median for the Selic at the end of 2028 remained at 10.00% for the 12th reading in a row. The estimate for 2029 remained at 9.75% for the second consecutive week. A month ago, it was 9.50%.
2026 GDP
The Focus report median for market growth Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026 remained at 1.85% for the second week in a row. A month earlier, it was 1.83%. Considering only the 37 projections updated in the last five business days, which are more sensitive to news, the estimate rose from 1.81% to 1.85%.
The growth expected by the market is greater than that predicted by the Central Bank. In the Monetary Policy Report (RPM) for the first quarter, the monetary authority maintained its projection of a 1.6% increase in GDP in 2026.
Focus’s intermediate estimate for the Growth of the Brazilian economy in 2027 continued at 1.80%, for the 15th consecutive week. Considering only the 34 projections updated in the last five business days, it increased from 1.67% to 1.80%.
The medians for GDP growth in 2028 and 2029 remained at 2.00%, for the 109th and 56th week in a row, respectively.
Dollar
The median of the Focus report for the dollar at the end of 2026 fell from R$5.40 to R$5.37while the projection for the currency at the end of 2027 fell from R$5.45 to R$5.40. A month ago, they were R$5.40 and R$5.47, respectively.
For the end of 2028, the estimate decreased from R$5.50 to R$5.46. Four weeks ago, it was R$5.50. For 2029, it remained at R$5.50 for the third week in a row. A month ago, it was R$5.51.
The annual exchange rate projection published in Focus is calculated based on the average for the rate in December, and not on the projected value for the last business day of each year, as it was until 2020.
*With information from Estadão Conteúdo
