More than 30 million people will be pushed back into poverty due to the impacts of the Iran war, including disruptions to fuel and fertilizer supplies, UN development chief Alexander De Croo said on Thursday.
Fertilizer shortages – worsened by the blockage of cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz – have already reduced agricultural productivity, the administrator of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) told Reuters.
This will likely affect agricultural production later this year, the former Belgian prime minister added.
“Food insecurity will reach its peak level in a few months, and there is not much that can be done about it,” he said, also listing other consequences of the crisis, including energy shortages and a drop in remittances.
“Even if the war stopped tomorrow, these effects are already present and will push more than 30 million people back into poverty,” he added.
Much of the world’s fertilizer is produced in the Middle East, and a third of global supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran and the United States vie for control.
This month, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the UN World Food Program warned that the war will raise food prices, further burdening the world’s most vulnerable populations.
De Croo said the indirect effects of the crisis have already wiped out an estimated 0.5% to 0.8% of global GDP. “Things that take decades to accumulate, it takes eight weeks of war to destroy them,” he declared.
The crisis is also straining humanitarian efforts as funding dwindles and needs increase in places already facing serious emergencies, including Sudan, Gaza and Ukraine.
“We’re going to have to tell certain people: I’m sorry, but we can’t help you,” he said.
“People who would be surviving with help won’t have that and will be pushed into even greater vulnerability.”
