According to the World Meteorological Organization, sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific are rising rapidly after a period of neutrality at the beginning of the year.
The World Meteorological Organization (OMM), United Nations climate and weather agency, sees greater probability of formation of a new El Niño from May onwardswith a possible impact on the pattern of rainfall and temperatures in several regions of the world, including Brazil. According to the WMO, Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific are rising rapidly after a period of neutrality at the beginning of the year.
The entity states that climate models indicate a clear change in the ocean and point out a high probability of the return of El Niño conditions between May and Julywith intensification in the following months.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the beginning of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is great confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the following months,” WMO head of climate forecasting, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, said in a statement.
El Niño occurs when Central and eastern Equatorial Pacific waters become warmer than normal for an extended period. This warming alters the circulation of the atmosphere and can change the behavior of rainfall, droughts and temperatures in different parts of the planet.
The WMO considers, however, that There is still uncertainty in forecasts made at this time of year. According to Okia, the models indicate that the event could be significant, but the so-called spring predictability barrier in the Northern Hemisphere makes more accurate projections difficult before the end of April.
For the quarter from May to July, the entity predicts temperatures above normal across almost the entire earth’s surface. The WMO also highlights that El Niño usually favor more rain in southern parts of South America and drier weather in areas of Australia, Indonesia and South Asia.
In Brazil, according to the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), the phenomenon tends to cause opposite effects between regions: more rain in the South and a greater risk of drought in the northern part of the North and Northeast regions. The impact, however, depends on the intensity of the eventthe time of year and the interaction with other climatic factors.
The WMO also states that it does not use the expression “super El Niño”, as it is not a standardized technical classification. The entity says that there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, but highlights that warmer oceans and atmosphere may magnify associated effectssuch as intense heat and heavy rain.
The next WMO update on El Niño will be released at the end of May.
