Without having won the support of the evangelical front and after going through the longest nomination process among the current ministers of the (Supreme Federal Court), it remains in the hands of the President of the House, (-AP), on the eve of its hearing, scheduled for Wednesday (29).
The Union’s attorney general will need the endorsement of at least 41 out of 81 senators in a secret vote, a task that has become difficult. Senators say that the score is undefined and tight and that a favorable gesture from the head of Congress is needed. Messias still waits to be received personally by Alcolumbre.
Alcolumbre’s adhesion would enable the favorable vote of a group of senators linked to him and, therefore, would guarantee the approval of the AGU.
Alcolumbre’s signal, in turn, depends on an agreement in the relationship between him and the president (PT), responsible for choosing the Messiah. After the crisis caused by the nomination last November, Alcolumbre continues to complain about the lack of dialogue with the PT member.
In the final stretch, government senators should look for Lula and Alcolumbre in an attempt to unlock support for Messias. Meanwhile, the kissing intensified in the Senate and its organizers counted vote by vote.
The bloc formed by PL, Novo and Avante, with 18 senators, decided to vote against Messias, which emptied his only asset with the conservative right — the fact that he was evangelical. Among the 18 members of the evangelical parliamentary front in the Senate, 7 are part of these parties.
In addition to them, other members of the front have already indicated that they will vote against, such as Cleitinho (-MG), Alan Rick (Republicanos-AC) and Carlos Viana (-MG). (Republicanos-DF) should also vote against, but other colleagues from the evangelical group are pro-Messiah, such as Eliziane Gama (PSD-MA) and Dr. Eudócia (PSDB-AL).
This scenario makes Bolsonaro senators bet on a rejection of the AGU. It would be a bitter defeat for the government, since the last time this happened was in 1894, during the Floriano Peixoto government.
Parliamentarians who are enthusiastic about Messias say that rejection is unlikely, given that the government has worked for approval and has political weight, especially in an election year. Palácio do Planalto has been negotiating parliamentary amendments and positions in regulatory agencies.
Government senators who occupy ministries and even those on medical leave must participate in the vote. On the other hand, there will be pro-Messiah parliamentarians absent for health reasons.
Government officials also say they can count on the common sense of Alcolumbre, who has been awarded a series of positions in the Executive. There are those who also remember that the minister was approved despite the objection of the current president of the Senate. If this were to happen again with Messias, the government’s victory in the struggle with Alcolumbre would be clear.
Mendonça, who is also evangelical and was nominated by (PL), along with conservative senators. In addition, the AGU, such as the apostle Estevam Hernandes, from the Renascer em Cristo church, and the apostle César Augusto, from the Fonte da Vida Church.
Others who came to Messiah’s defense were Bishop Samuel Ferreira, from the Madureira Assembly of God, and federal judge and pastor William Douglas. For the attorney general’s allies, it won’t be bad if their belief, even if it is a personal issue, appears during the hearing.
Despite the religious mobilization, evangelical senators opposed to the Messiah claim Sheetwith the reservation that his religion alone was not able to garner votes.
In the assessment of these senators, Messias has positions more aligned with the PT and Lula than with the evangelicals. They mention as an example, which must be defended by the nominee in the hearing, who opined on the unconstitutionality of a resolution by the CFM (Federal Council of Medicine) that prohibited legal abortion in fetuses over 22 weeks.
Another topic that irritated Bolsonarists, including evangelicals, was the AGU’s defense of the arrest of coup plotters. On that occasion, the senators say, Messias could have adopted a more pacifying stance and sought to prevent abuses by the STF instead of endorsing them.
As shown by Sheetand, therefore, they were included in the preparation that Messiah has made. The arguments of the last four nominees to the STF lasted between 7 and 11 hours.
After passing the hearing at the CCJ (Constitution and Justice Commission), Messias will have his nomination submitted for analysis by the plenary — the entire process should take place on Wednesday itself.
Messias has been waiting for the date since November 20th of last year, when he contradicted Alcolumbre. The president of the Senate wanted to sign an ally, the senator (PSB-MG), who now has the support of the PT member.
The long period of 159 days between the president’s announcement and the hearing is a record considering the current 10 ministers of the court. Secondly, comes the Mendonça process, which took 147 days — precisely because of Alcolumbre’s opposition at the time.
In the case of Messias, the delay was a decision made by Lula, who was trying to circumvent and impose a defeat on the PT member.
This period was dedicated to political articulation for and convincing senators. According to Messias strategists, the president of the Senate has no longer hindered the AGU, although he is not helping either.
“Time was our ally. We were able to have a calmer articulation, with more and longer conversations. We received interesting signals of support. Until Wednesday, we will carry out checks and lists to count votes”, says the leader of the PT in the Senate, Teresa Leitão (PE).
Among the current ministers of the court, there were unanimous votes in the CCJ, cases of and . The loosest score in the plenary was also that of Fux, with 68 to 2. The tightest results, on the other hand, were that of Mendonça (47 to 32) and (47 to 31, with 2 abstentions).
APPROVAL SCOREBOARD OF STF MINISTERS IN THE SENATE
- Flávio Dino: 47 to 31, with 2 abstentions
- Cristiano Zanin: 58 at 18
- André Mendonça: 47 to 32
- Nunes Marques: 57 to 10, with 1 abstention
- : 55 a 13
- Edson Fachin: 52 to 27
- Luiz Fux: 68 to 2
- : 58 to 9, with 3 abstentions
- Carmen Lúcia: 55 to 1
- Gilmar Mendes: 58 to 15
