Hardly anyone has heard his voice. Outside the highest echelons of Iranian power, no one knows what tone it has, how he speakswhat he is like and what he thinks. And, above all, what it looks like. Since his election as the new Iranian supreme leader, portraits of the Ayatollah Mojtaba Jamenei —son of Ali Jameneísupreme leader until February 28 of this year — are everywhere in Iran. But the photos are old, before the bombing that killed his father and left him seriously injured, probably disfigured. His current status is a mystery, as is his role in decision-making in the Persian country.
Before the war, everything happened through his father. Ali Jameneíat the head of the country since 1989built his system in orbit of his own figure. Every decision, every action, passed through his hands and head. But his death, along with that of much of Iran’s political and military leadership, has changed everything.
In times of war, the Revolutionary Guardthe elite corps of the Islamic Republichas taken control. Mojtaba – chosen precisely by this guard – has a much more symbolic power than his father. “Khameneí Jr. is having a more ‘hands-free’ role, even though his word still seems to have a certain ancestry. But the daily power, the decision-making, now falls to the National Security Council and in the Revolutionary Guard,” explains the Iranian expert Arash Azizprofessor of the Yale Universityin the United States.
Rally in Tehran with images of the former supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, during the funeral of a member of the Revolutionary Guard, on March 21. / ABEDIN TAHERKENAH / EFE
If Iran, before the conflict that started two months ago, was a country governed with the strong hand of a single man—and his islamic systemof course—now it is for a kind of military politburo, in which the most ideological and clerical voices have taken a backseat. Iran, since Islamic revolution of 1979it’s a theocratic countryin which the highest political authority is also religious.
“Let them clarify”
During the last weeks of negotiations that have so far failed, the American president, Donald Trumphas been constantly complaining that “Iran is not coming clean,” that its leadership has been so decimated during the conflict that the internal wars Within the upper echelons of power in Tehran they prevent the Iranians from agreeing on talks. In fact, Pakistanthe main mediating country, has complained through anonymous sources who claim that Iran takes days to respond to the messages exchanged by Islamabad.
This delay, according to experts, responds more to the communication difficulties —with leaders, like Mojtaba, in hiding and probably convalescing—than to internal divisions.
“Trump’s statements are misguided and exaggerateddefinitely. There are internal tensions, of course, but the chain of command is clear. Iran has not lost the ability to make decisions or implement them. The Iranian Government, despite the multiple casualties, has proven to be capable of absorbing the blows and continuing to function,” explains Azizi, who considers that although Mojtaba’s role is now purely symbolic, this may change in the coming months.
“Now, wounded, he does not seem to be in a position to reinforce his power. But this may change in the future, as he recovers medically and Iran, politically, after the war,” says the expert.
Archive image of a Revolutionary Guard parade. / AFP
Where is Iran going?
In another of his taglines in recent weeks, Trump has also actively and passively assured that the objective in Iran has been achieved: that the US has achieved a regime change in Tehranand that the “people who govern now are different, much smarterand you can talk to them.”
Of course, the Islamic Republic still stands and experts believe that the most internal voices radical and belligerent They have been reinforced during the war, to the detriment of more moderate and reformist sectors within Tehran, represented by the current president, Mesud Pezeshkiany Hasan Rushespresident from 2013 to 2021.
This has been the change in Iran forced by Trump. “We still have a lot to see. Iran is in an interregnum right now, and we need time to see how it solidifies. But what it does seem is that the country is moving in the direction of being a much less revolutionary and ideological State and much more militaristic. This in some way could help Iran and the US reach an agreement, but that possibility always existed, even before the war,” Azizi said. But the surprise attack by Washington and Israel on February 28 broke up that negotiating table.
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