There will be “a point at which the value will be so high that people can no longer buy houses”.
The sales value of the casas in Portugal it remains at historic highs, but the market is beginning to enter a maturity phase and in the future there may be a slowdown in the pace of price increases, consider those responsible for the real estate sector.
“As a short-term reversal is not expected, it is reasonable to anticipate a slowdown the pace of rising prices, even though 2026 continues to record growthalthough more moderate”, the president of the Association of Real Estate Professionals and Companies of Portugal (APEMIP), Patrícia Barão, told Lusa.
For the person responsible, “this is a natural fit in a market that is not elastic and that will hardly be able to sustain, for a long time, variations in the order of double digits”, according to him.
“Prices reduce slightly”
Bruno Coelho, property manager at Doutor Finances, agrees that the market may be on the way to cooling down because families are starting to postpone purchasing decisions.
“The real estate market is quite predictable and works in cycles. Right now, it is at a peak of low supply, and what happens after these cycles is a market cooling“, explained the manager.
The trend, if confirmed, means that prices “unbearable for the middle class, which can no longer move further away from the city center. Purchasing decisions begin to be more weighted e postponed, there are more properties available on the market and prices are reduced slightly“, said the person responsible for the credit intermediary company.
Based on announced (and not actual) housing sales prices, the quarterly analysis of the Doctor Finance real estate observatory pointed to a descent slight of 0,4% in sales values per square meter between January and March this year.
However, the latest statistical data on housing released by INE showed a climb of 16,8% in the median price of family accommodation transacted in Portugal in 2025 in relation to the previous year, standing in the 2,076 euros per square metera new all-time high since the start of the series in 2019.
In the fourth quarter, growth accelerated even more, reaching a 17.5% increase compared to the same period last year, with the median price rising to 2,198 euros per square meter.
The median bank appraisal value for housing also reached a new historic high of 2,151 euros per square meter in March, more 16,5% than in the same month of 2025. Still, the annual increase of 16.5% was lower than the 17.2% recorded in February, according to IBGE.
25 mil vs. 70 mil
According to the president of APEMIP, the scarcity of housing supply “continues to press the market”, as only approximately 25 thousand new homes per year when “the real demand would require a volume close to 70 thousand”.
The executive president (CEO) of the real estate agency ERA Portugal, Rui Torgal, also maintained that price growth is the result of “a brutal imbalance between supply and demand, as in the last 10 to 12 years practically nothing has been built. And the scarcity of labor does not respond to market requests.”
Between public housing, new housing and reconstruction or rehabilitation of used properties, Portugal will have a deficit of housing “in the order of 800 thousand to one million houses“, as the person in charge said.
“They can’t do it anymore”
Emphasizing that prices only fall with a greater balance between supply and demand, Rui Torgal admitted, however, that there will be “a moment from which the The value will be so high that people will no longer be able to buy houses.”
The head of ERA Portugal is critical of the delay in the Government’s “fiscal shock”, which foresees, among other measures, the reduction of the tax rate IVA from 6% to 23%, adding that he would have preferred “a later announcement of the measures and a quicker entry into force”, in order to avoid “the tremendous uncertainty that exists in the real estate market”.
Bruno Coelho also recognizes “a structural supply problem”, which must be overcome with “more construction”, greater “access to land for construction” and faster licensing.
“Some of the measures announced by the Government may have an effect, but real estate is a slow market. Things take time to take effect. It takes time, more than anything. We are talking about years”, concluded.
Patrícia Barão added that the future of the housing market will depend “on the ability to reinforce supply and implement structural solutions, such as ‘build to rent’ or urban densification strategies, without which the pressure on prices will tend to continue, albeit in a more moderate way”.
